December 21, 2007
Friday 071221
Rest Day

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Workout demo - video [wmv] [mov]
"Abolish the CIA: Destroying the Interrogation Tapes Amounts to Mutiny and Treason." By Christopher Hitchens
Post thoughts to comments.
Posted by lauren at December 21, 2007 6:23 PM
That was a sweet workout, can't wait to do that tomorrow!
off to france for christmas-packed my rings kettlebells and jump rope-no rest for me!
Interesting article. First, I think the danger to the U.S. of an Iranian nuclear weapon is a bit overblown in comparison to the danger faced by Israel in that situation. You can be sure that they're keeping a very close eye on the Iranian nuclear program. This isn't to say that we should stop paying attention to it--just that it might not as much of a response from the U.S. as some would have us believe.
Second, as an engineer, I believe that making a nuclear weapon (as opposed to a nuclear device, ala Pakistan) is vastly more difficult than this article and much of the media portray. A working nuclear device requires parts manufactured and assembled to exacting precision. Making the device into a weapon requires ensuring that none of this delicate mechanism be damaged during transport and delivery. The number of possibilities for failure is huge. I would also recommend an interesting discussion on this topic at:
http://blogs.stratfor.com/friedman/2007/12/03/the-nie-report-solving-a-geopolitical-problem-with-iran/
http://blogs.stratfor.com/friedman/2007/12/04/further-thoughts-on-nie/
Just some food for thought.
George Will/Christopher Hitchens 08!
Highly recommend (wfs) www.hitchensweb.com. Also, check out his YouTube debates with Dinesh D'Souza and George Galloway.
Will the Congress ever demand their right explicitly laid out in the Constitution to declare war? Will they ever demand the CIA (and the rest of the Federal Govt) actually obey the law? Why do they rail against the CIA using waterboarding and the semantics of torture/not torture?
Very simple answer on all these questions - pass a law. If they make a law saying "Waterboarding is torture" then it is illegal unless vetoed by the President's or in a case judged by the Supreme Court. They won't do it because a) they can make political hay with the issue still being unresolved, and b) they are busy inserting pork into the 9200 page omnibus appropriations bill.
Excuse the rant, it's been building for a while. Read more Hitchens.
The One World crew rocks! Freddy and Jolie are absolute monsters!
I love seeing solid athletes hanging it out.
Nice all around, but I bet the diablo monsters good have increased aerodynamic efficiency by shedding their shirts. People can't really tell but, Freddy C has had "air bumps" inserted in his skin under those beautiful tatoos. Sort of like dimples on a golf ball.
As for J, she's just out there, like russian space monkey out there!
kstar
Go Freddie C Go! The guy is 42 years old, amazing.
Legends all round.
I am forever jealous of the tight knit Crossfit community you have over there in the States. One day I hope to be part of something similar.
Freddy - Dude, who needs a high performance diet when you can do the sh#$ that you do.
And Jolie - One wonders how much of a high performance athlete you are going to be in, say, 10 years time.
way to go freddie and jolie! still not sure what that wod was but it looked tough.
Interesting #4 post.
Thinking...thinking...thinking...
It seems all systems in place by our gov't are faulty and not 100% reliable...abandoning the CIA should start a recoil of "agency refurbishment"...OK I'm in!
It seems the B admin is aiming (as they so often do in their round about way of protecting) to cover up our Pres.
Craig and Jermey way to represent with a soild effort for us Diablo crossfitters, We will get them next time, well probably not they are pretty bad ass.
MB,
you being an engineer and me being just a guy that reads....if, from scratch, in 1941 a nation can begin to research, develop, construct, test and ultimately employ by 1945 two nuclear weapons, you and I have to agree that Iran has the capability to construct a nuclear device. The "critical" element (pun intended) is the material....the rest can be obtained with good google searches and proper machining...so I would not call it overblown. There are a few more steps to weaponize nuclear material than simply giving power to the people (another pun intended), and if a country continually takes those steps we have to assume that their intentions are a bit more insidious.
As far as the CIA...It is what it is. A para-military organization that began jumping out of airplanes, doing daring singleton operations into a Cold War era spy agency that is adjusting (I hope) to the needs of the country.
There should be some reorganization...not only w/ the CIA, but with the entire intelligence community. Too many competing interests create a climate where the "greater good" is sometimes skewed in favor of lesser interests...
I just want to be like Freddy when I grow up...
I saw the writer was affiliated with Slate and Vanity Fair ... and then (rather than read the article) I decided to do something more productive with my time like ponder my navel and wondering if I really do like vanilla.
The point about the CIA's criminal acts is most interesting to me.
To some degree there may always be a disconnect between the rank-and-file civil service employees and their politically appointed boss. So internal disagreements seem par for the course in a bureacracy headed by a politician (or at least a politically active person). I don't feel like I'm being too cynical to expect that the bureacrats who manage spies and work with secrets would be more devious about their internal politics. Also, it's bound to be difficult to hold the CIA and its workers up to the scrutiny of public-, media-, or even investigatorial- review when the bulk of their work is information which should probably not be plastered all over the web.
So, how do we keep an agency and its employees in line and ask it to do secret and sometimes shady stuff?
Either we blow it open to public review, make it into another law-enforcement agency, and risk losing it's ability to actually gather intelligence, or we close it away from the public eye, appoint a trusted, apolitical professional to manage the agency for much longer than the next administration change and clean up its problems in-house.
Option 1 cripples our reach into world politics. Option 2 depends on finding an uncorruptable super-patriot with the ability to run a huge non-traditional bureacracy. And even if we find such a person, how do we reconcile the existence of an unaccountable finger of the executive branch with the Constitution's (very sensible) requirements for limiting government with checks & balances?
A third option is to muddle through with imperfect information gathering, which is sometimes compromised by political hacks, hamstrung congressional investigations, and internal disputes. But it also has a chance of catching the really big screw-ups and holding the agency and its leaders to some semblance of accountability. It seems like this is what we've got for now.
Anybody see a fourth, better option?
Also, unrelated to the article, I had a question about muscle performance vs. pain. I'm relatively new to crossfit and was surprised at how I was able to complete (admittedly scaled-down) WODs on days when my legs have been complaining like hell about going down stairs. Does anyone know of a study measuring two (or more) all-out identical physical efforts on successive days? I'm curious how much decreased performance is due to a wussie factor vs. actual physiological inability to perform the work. Thanks.
Looking forward to this rest day.
Good week from the hopper.
I got a chance to share the platform with freddy c. at the CF Games - that's a man's man, with a cool dog, too. Go look at his shoulder press from the games - it's awesome.
freddy and jolie & the rest of the one world crew - look forward to seeing you guys at this year's games.
Thoughts later on the article.
Never ever challenge Jolie to bodyweight anything! Check that, never challenge Jolie to anything CrossFit. That girl can climb a damn rope. By the way, don't challenge Freddy either.
Great vid production Tony. That was fun. The wod was absolutely brutal.
Jeremy and I are training for the rematch...perhaps in vain.
To everyone else attending a cert, beware of Tony B.'s harmless little question: "hey, how'd you like to do a little wod for lunch with the One World crew?"
This is one fun family.
Craig - Diablo CrossFit
#15 Fat Slice - Another good way to avoid points of view that do not agree with yours is to bury your head in the sand.
Regardless of your policial "persuasion" - you have to admit that there is something fishy going on with the destruction of the torture/harsh interogation tapes. Its worth thinking about and discussing.
#15 Slice
Please forgive me if this is rude, but overlooking the piece because of the forum in which it is published is just plain intellectual laziness. I don't always agree with Hitch, but I read his stuff because he's smarter, better educated, better read, and far more thoughtful than your average, say, 10 people, and I always find myself challenged to either defend myself intellectually, or reconsider my position.
Though I don't usually agree with the majority here politically, I'm glad that along with pushing ourselves physically, we like to push ourselves intellectually, as well.
Enjoy your navel. :)
Hi everyone!
Ive recently completed a 330km cycling trek of South Western Australia over three days, including a double-century leg from Perth to Bunbury.
Without being on the paleo diet (12mths) and crossfit (3mths), I doubt that I would have had the physical and mental stamina to complete it.
Congratulations on a fantastic site, and Merry Christmas to everyone (notice how the next rest day will be Christmas).
Rob
whooooo! nice job freddy c and jolie! you guys rock!
29/f/110
just got back from the gym. couldn't decide if i wanted to row or run the 5k so i did both.
5k run on treadmill: 25:11 (worst 5k in a long long time)
3min rest
5k row: 23:52 (PR)
almost passed out after the row, had to sit for 5-10 min. i am pooped that was a very tough cycle. i think i will actually take a rest day tomorrow. whole body aches.
At CrossFitNYC holiday party.
Tabata shots + Pull-up contest = good times:) I won. ;)
Doing "Ryan" in honor of Ryan Gracie tomorrow.
see you clazy peeps in DC Saturday.
I still wonder if there should have been a recount. I don't know if I trust CrossFit 5280 'counting reps'. . . I am not saying there was anything intentional. . . but "boys in blue" stick together - know what I mean? Just ask Dan S.
And don't ask me what was going on with the back of my hair - I have no idea.
-jj
Oh yeah,
Nice work on the video production (and music).
-jj
Nos. 20 & 21: You presume much. Although I'm being admittedly ad hominem, your author is, well, a "drink-sodden ex-Trotskyist popinjay":
"A profile on Hitchens by NPR stated: 'Hitchens is known for his love of cigarettes and alcohol -- and his prodigious literary output.' Hitchens admits to drinking heavily; in 2003 he wrote that his daily intake of alcohol was enough 'to kill or stun the average mule.' He noted that many great writers 'did some of their finest work when blotto, smashed, polluted, shi+f@ced, squiffy, whiffled, and three sheets to the wind.' George Galloway, on his way to testify in front of a United States Senate subcommittee investigating the scandals in the U.N. Oil-for-Food program, called Hitchens a 'drink-sodden ex-Trotskyist popinjay,' to which Hitchens quickly replied, 'Only some of which is true.' Later, in a column for Slate promoting his debate with Galloway which was to take place on September 14, 2005, he elaborated on his prior response. 'He says that I am an ex-Trotskyist (true), a "popinjay" (true enough, since its original Webster's definition means a target for arrows and shots), and that I cannot hold a drink (here I must protest).'"
Now, if you don't mind, I'll go back to billing my clients $350/hr for my "intellectual laziness."
Love,
Slice, Esq.
Christopher Hitchens is hard to take seriously. On one hand, he is a fine writer with a keen mind. On the other, he makes some of the most ridiculous assertions. I particularly like this one:
> The acquisition of enriched uranium and of
> plutonium, for any purpose, is identical with the
> acquisition of a thermonuclear weapons capacity.
> Iran continues to strive to produce both, neither
> of which, as it happens, are required for its
> ostensible civilian energy needs.
Iran is past peak oil production. That is, in all likelihood, they will never again pull as much oil out of the ground as they are right now. By the way, the US peaked in the early 70s. As Iran's economy and population grows their thirst for energy increases. Where will this energy come from? Not oil. At least, not for that long. Is nuclear the answer? Maybe not, but it is something for them. Christopher Hitchens needs to think more critically about energy before making such silly statements.
Note, Iran may want the bomb. If I were Iran, I might think that having atomic weapons would be a way of guaranteeing some modicum of security, too.
Just finished Wednesday's Badger workout.
f/137/25yo
42:00
That was tough... 30 cleans at once is a lot. Can I also just say that I still can't walk up and down stairs without bracing myself from the walking lunges workout that I made up on Monday??? My husband did that workout tonight...he's in for it now!
Enjoy your Christmas weekend!
Tony B., as usual, a cool video! That was a lot of fun.
In reality, Jeremy and Craig both weigh over 200#, so they had to do A LOT of work. And a proper shout out to Craig cause he's an "old guy" just like me! The whole Diablo Crossfit crew were a bunch of cool dudes.
Jolie and I are training hard for the rematch.
Slice - so what? I don't care if Hitchens is a drunk - Poe was, too. Coleridge wrote Kublai Khan while on opium - would you say that no one should read Coleridge because he was a "slack-jawed heroin addict"?
And if your defense is that you can charge your clients $350 an hour, then why are you wasting your time here? I can charge mine that too - but I still come here to be a part of the community - even when I could probably be spending that time charging my clients. I don't get your point.
WHO CARES ABOUT WATERBOARDING A FREAKIN KNOWN ENEMY/TERRORIST!!!!!! FOR CHRIST SAKE MAYBE THEY (CIA) PREVENTED ANOTHER 9/11. FOR THOSE OF YOU THAT DONT SERVE THIS COUNTRY IN A UNIFORM OF SORTS, QUIT QUESTIONING YOUR SAFTEY, YOUR SECURITY, AND YOU FREEDOM AND JUST SAY "THANKS"
I cannot find one statement in which the president of Iran said making a nuclear weapon was his goal. Energy seems to be the theme of the Iranian nuclear issue.
In fact im tired of all the war mongering neo cons and the rest of that lot pushing the issue continuously. HOW DOES THIS GUY KNOW MORE THAN THE CIA? Does anyone ask that question when reading this overblown pile of malarkie?
The truth is that the israelis want us to go to war with Iran so bad their teeth itch. They dont care if Iran has Nuclear weapons or Nuclear energy, either one poses a massive threat to israels power over the region (intrestingly enough Iran is not considered the middle east, so now are talking cross regional conflict).
Iraq is going to be fighting itself for the next 50 years, palestine and lebenon are shell shocked from 60 years of struggle, leaving Iran and Syria the last to vestiges of hope for Muslims in the middle east. WOW. What a situation (considering that Iranians are both Shi'a and Persian, as oppose to Sunni and Arab like the majority of the middle east).
I'll bet nobody can guess who the only middle eastern country with an illegal nuclear WMD is. It is NOT Iran, I'll give that much of a hint.
The truth is, the CIA made a statement which is going to be hard to overlook in respect to going to war with Iran in the near future, so now the media is going to fry them in an effort to debunk the statement and go to war regardless. It's that simple.
Who knows the reasoning behind the "Torture" of prisoners? Not you, and not I. Maybe it was necessary. I can tell you that people suffer worse tortures everyday across the world, without the on-the-side benefit of American National Security.
My point: If the war mongerers get a report they like, they tell us how good the CIA is, one they don't like, they bash the CIA in order to make report illegitimate. It is total manipulation. My advice is to ignore this kind of garbage.
I'm surprised I made it past the first page of that "article". I don't think I've read anything that ignorant in a long time. At least, I can't remember reading anything THAT worthless...in terms of journalism, intellectual stimulation, etc - it pains me to think that people might read that and think: "my, this gentleman has a point" - seriously?!? how many nuclear reactors do we have in the U.S.? How many nuclear weapons do we have in the U.S.? how many nuclear weapons do Iran's neighbors have? Why does Iran's gov't hate us in the first place? (see, the Iran-Iraq war, where the US funded the Iraq interest) Why are we so hypocritical when it comes to foreign policy?
I've never heard of Chris Hitchens, but his tenuous attempt at drawing a link between (1) the CIA's recent failure in destroying tapes that never should have been destroyed, and (2)their recent proclamation that, perhaps, we shouldn't rush to judgment AGAIN in the middleast, is weak, at best.
1)Amazing workout from the reps from both gyms. Perspective is an interesting thing, and though the Diablo guys didn't triumph over One World, they still put up great numbers. I will start CF Jan after 5 months of Rippetoe's SS routine, and can't wait to be at that level of fitness.
2) The CIA isn't the only part of the gov't machine that has been known to 'lose' important documents at any given point in history. I served in the Navy 2 years ago and I still get about 2 letters a year saying that I should put a freeze on my credit cause they lost a laptop with my SS# on it.
3)Shutting out the opinion of a writer based soley on what publications they have been employed by will cause you to miss out on quite a few gifted writers. I don't have any specific opinion on sober vs. loaded wordsmiths, but I do think the 'I don't give a flip' is something that is pretty common among gifted writers. If you only write what your audience wants to hear you are sure to make a killing, but personal integrity is the price you pay...
If you were say, invading Iraq, deposing Saddam Hussein, and attempting to liberate 25 million or so people from an oppressive regime that had clearly demonstrated a willingness to develop, manufacture, and use chemical and biological weapons on it's own citizens, as well as fund, support, and host an open breeding ground for terrorists intent on your destruction, then having a neighboring country that was openly hostile toward western ideology and had proclaimed the intention to destroy a neighboring state coming closer and closer to possession of nuclear weapons isn't a bad strategy.
If toppling the Hussein dictatorship brings the Iranian government to the point of reconsidering their rush to possess nuclear weapons without any direct military intervention against Iran, and you know it, good on ya.
Who's to say the recent 'discovery' of Iran's nuclear capabilities and our 'faulty' intelligence gathering was as much a mutinous mistake, as an arguably brilliant bit of intentional misinformation by the CIA?
I know of no writer worth reading that did not drink , well maybe Shaw. Glad to see a greater plurality of opinions on the site, I think its healthy.
Great workout vid!
Freddy and Jolie, glad you guys are my trainers! See you guys tomorrow.
I'm sorry about going off topic, but if anyone feels like enlightening me...
I'm in the process of volunteering for special ops. The most difficult training is probably about 5 months away. My question is simply, how light is too light? I know it is beneficial to be lighter for the runs and pull ups and such. But my bodyweight is 155 right now, and I imagine it might be somewhat easier to haul an 85lb ruck around if I was more like 175.
I would like to gain weight, but I do not want to give up running and swimming, which I still need work on. Is it possible to keep up with cardio and still gain weight? Is the extra weight unnecessary for special ops?
I'm using Crossfit WODs with some added swimming right now. Please feel free to let me know if I am way off base here, but is bulkier better?
I think the article title is ridiculous. Noone is going to abolish the CIA and any tapes they have of any interrogations should never be seen by anyone. They are the CIA and unless they are interrogating innocent people in an unlawful manner we should be happy that they interrogate terrorists with "Enhanced Techniques" hell my WOD could qualify for that sometimes.
Great video and strong work done by all.
I'll have to get to the article later, I'm madly wrapping the last of the presents today.
JOHN WOPAT-
Happy number 2 CF Anniversary! (many exclamation points and confetti)
I wish that I could do Fran with you in person, but I will settle on doing it with you in spirit today, in your honor.
It was my inaugural WOD too. Usually what I think about whilst doing Fran (besides how much I can't seem to get any air in my lungs) is how it was when she came through hurricane fashion. The funny thing is, is that she was the first fullblown hurricane that we expierienced here (and yes, she was that destructive).
Somehow it all seems appropriate...
Have fun,
Kate
Anybody wondering whether that video resembles anything close to what we all may be doing on
SAtuday at Primal??
For those of you that are going to meet up with me at Albany...Just got word from Jason that Brett has been working on putting something together for us that may suspend our attendance at Christmas... oh yeah, THAT painful!!
Still can hardly walk ffrom doing 400 m backwards lunges the other day! Bring it on!
~J~
~Train Hard and Push Through "IT"!~
#27 Fat Slice
Is your response to your "intellectual conversation" with BrettL bragging about how much money you make? That reminds me of the drug dealing thugs I used to interact with on the street. Often the "intellectual conversation" with them turned into one trying to insult PoPo by pulling out a big roll of cash from their pocket implying, "Look, see cop, I'm better then you. I have more money. So now what!"
Next your going to try and insult someone by saying your Fran is faster than theirs.
Hitchens argument is hinges on this statement "a senior official of the CIA takes the unilateral decision to destroy the crucial evidence".
But haven't we already known, for at least a week, that White House officials were involved in conversations regarding whether or not the tapes should be destroyed? How could one, in any way, call that a "unilateral" decision?
Hitchens also seems to think that the review of the Iranian weapons program was not a consensus opinion of what, 16 intelligence agencies(?), but the sole domain of the CIA.
And he neglects the fact that the White House sat on this intel for months, while continuing the drumbeat of war against Iran.
All interesting, but a digression.
The fact is that the CIA's evidence was minimal, at best, against Iraq, yet it was amplified to provoke war sentiment, and then when their assessment turns out to be wrong, the blame is put on them as a proxy for everything that has gone wrong with the war. "We all thought they had weapons of mass destruction! The CIA told us! (So, of course we had to bomb them, depose Saddam Hussein, disband the military, allow the looting of the government offices and the museums of antiquity, allow Iranian influence in their government and into the Shiite militias, give space for Al-Quaeda to flourish, allow the genocidal displacement of millions from their homes because of their religion, start screwing Vets out of their bonuses and health benefits, be negligent to the point of criminality in providing the necessary body and vehicle armor, etc etc.)"
If only the CIA had given us correct information, we wouldn't have had to do any of that! :-/
After what this administration did with the last assessment, do you think the CIA (or anyone else across the intelligence community) wants to be put in the position of being accountable for what would be an even bigger blunder?
boy was this rest day earned.
I have the NSCA CSCS today. Wish me luck.
www.stevesclub.org
#44 Adam W
buuurrrrrnnnnnnnn!
(beautifully put Adam!)
Hopefully our new Dr. on the posts read that as well!
(dammit, couldn't resist!)
LOL
~J~
I think Freddie and Jolie should be tested for performance enhancing drugs. I swore I saw their names mentioned in the Mitchell report. Ha...j/k!
"Its not steroids, its CrossFit"
(t-shirts in the works)
www.stevesclub.org
Thanks J RoCK...I will need it!
Do these morons believe the CIA just recently started using torture? Torture as a means of obtaining information has been going on for decades, anyone who believes otherwise is living in a fantasy world.
The real question is how did those tapes become public knowledge in the first place?
I have no problem with people being tortured whose sole purpose in life is to kill/torture us. Why fight a guerrila war with kid gloves? Geneva/Hague conventions need to go bye bye or be updated to reflect the 4th generation warefare we're in. 2nd generation 'rules' against an enemy that doesn't play by the rules is just idiotic. The most committed wins,(and we are not committed) the media and left leaning weenies won't allow us to take the leash of our dogs and let them do their job.
I want one of those tee-shirts!!
PPLLEEAASSEE let me know when the tee's are ready for print! I want one!
Ran my 5K from yesterday... 25:44 :)
uno cuatro tres colombiano
Where can I get rings for my school's weight room?
You want to talk about treason? I would call outing a CIA agent TREASON "but" we know that goes up to the 2nd highest office in the country a maybe higher.
M/22/6'1"/185
Did another 5k run today. 22:56. Six seconds faster than yesterday. Boo-yah. I'm going go to row my brains out later.
#47 J Rock
I agree and I got that feeling too (just didn't want to say anythng).
Completed the CPO WOD last night. 29 minutes. Was a little dissapointed so I made it up to Mark by going outside on a freshly rained Louisiana track and continued with the 400M lunge walks (mosquitos and all). All I could think about was that the pain was nothing compared to the loss of a great man and what his family (and others like them) are going through this Christmas.
Merry Christmas Everyone! Wish I was meeting up with you all in DC.
Today's video: which Crossfit gym is this?
# 28 (Tom C)
#33 (Justin Joiner),
read up on processes required to create nuclear devices, and compare them with what it takes to produce energy. They are two completely separate paths.
Steve L.,
good luck.
J
what in the world is the cia?
#57 Paul
Well said. May all of our prayers and well wishes be with those familys of all the great men and women who have given their lives serving our country.
God bless and Happy Holidays!
We'll get just a little more pukie for you, Paul!
~J~
US Marine,
I believe it's CF North Santa Cruz.
#32
I do serve this country in uniform and I pray you don't. We reap what we sow, and now my troops and I are in the moral morass of being told waterboarding is legal. Disgraceful, disgusting, and barely worthy of a third-world dictatorship.
The ends do not justify the means, to this we should pledge "Our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor."
Couple quick thoughts.
I'm not sure torture works. John McCain was tortured, and they got very little out of him. I think a more skillful use of psychology might yield more benefits. For those unfamiliar with the state of well conducted police interrogations, it's quite good. The Israelis have developed some good procedures too, that seem to work for them.
Second point: the CIA is not the only intelligence agency we have. There is as well a Defense Intelligence Agency, is there not?
I have a degree in South Asian Studies, for reasons I won't get in to here. My department had a clear liberal bias. This is, to my understanding, a pretty much universal phenomenon in all regional studies programs at good universities around the country.
I have long heard--presumably for this reason--that the CIA and State Departments, institionally, tend towards what we might term a "non-Manichean" understanding of international affairs. They have an organizational bent towards trust versus confrontation, and negotiation versus coercion. For many, this may seem self evidently the best approach.
Tenet, in my recollection that I don't have time to confirm right now, said that he was pressured to provide information on Iraq's WMD capabilities. What he provided was inadequate.
However, I don't think we can exprapolate from that that there were no WMD programs. I think there were. Every indication was that they were there, and as Hitchens says, once you have the basic research in place, and the correct technical personnel, it's just a matter of getting the material, and you are good to go in a matter of months.
It has been alleged repeatedly that the material and--more importantly--personnel were moved to Syria in the nearly yearlong leadup to the war. I remember thinking at the time: how on earth are we going to find anything, when he has this much warning and time to hide it? You could store the essentials of an entire nuclear program on a microdot. Think about what would be needed to find that. Then consider that you only need a handful of skilled brains and hands. Then consider that Syria apparently just tried to get into the nuclear business, and Sayeret Mat'kal or someone like them said "say hello to my little friend". Food for thought. I don't think I'm wrong.
The bigger issue there, though, is that the CIA apparently missed that transfer. While they were complaining about having to "cook" up evidence, they were missing actual, actionable evidence that it was their job to find.
I read a book some time ago about the A'man (think that's right) which is the IDF Military intelligence agency. People know about Mossad, which is their equivalent to their CIA, and prone to some major screw-ups themselves, but very few about their equivalent, roughly, to our DIA.
How many of you knew that they had an agent placed at high levels of Syrian government, under consideration for Defense Minister, of all things, and who gave them detailed layouts of the Golan Heights fortifications--who in fact was taken on tours of said fortifications, in effect as a commanding general, and whose information was invaluable in the 7 Days War? It's true.
What the CIA lacks--what they seem to lack the institutional fortitude to develop with the skill and--more importantly--committment of the Israelis--are spies. Secret agents. Well embedded sources of human intelligence, who alone can provide the maps we need to truly and completely understand our enemies.
Now, if they were doing this splendidly, of course, their secret agents, being secret, would not be known to me, and someone somewhere would be smiling and saying: if only he knew. That could be. I don't know.
But if we are doing this well, then the effects of that should be showing in our abilities to predict and understand our enemies better. I can't pretend to know what we don't know, so it's hard to assess this failure with accuracy, but it seems to me that they are often at loggerheads with the Administration not due to undue pressure to break the law, but rather simple pressure to do their jobs correctly.
Waterboarding, per se, is a non-issue to me, in that I assume we are quite willing to kill, as needed, the same people we are waterboarding. What is an issue is incompetence. If you do these things, and still fail, then what you are hiding is not an atrocity, but an inability to do your job. Torture, to me, is likely quite often a symptom of incompetence. It's not the best way, and I'm not sure it's even a good way of getting information.
We will not abolish the CIA. Howver, what is perfectly possible is to privilege, in functional domains and funding, other agencies--like the NSA and DIA--and thereby work to reduce the primacy currently assigned to the CIA in proactively finding things out that are otherwise secret.
With respect to Iran, I agree with Hitchens that this appears a naked political play, and it is likely that the threat of the release of this report was used in heated closed meetings as a coercive tool in a political power play--or holding action--and somebody--likely Bush--failed to cave.
We can move money and power around. That can be done in closed door meetings.
#22 Rob ---Wow. Congrats.
#46 Steve ---You don't need luck. Do well brother.
I think to fully understand this issue of Iran's nuclear capability it would be helpful to look at it within the broader conext of nuclear weapons in so called "Islamic States."
William Langewiesche did a terrific article for the Atlantic (another publication for which Hitchens writes) that basically covered the AQ Khan network:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200511/aq-khan
Including its ties to Iran and North Korea.
Got one in the hopper. Should pop up around #57. I don't say this often, but I think this one is worth reading.
M 23 184
Did Fran today:
3:46 as Rx'd
Badger tomorrow, a couple days behind
5k row today. 21:46. No time to chat right now, but I gotta say I'm sick of Christopher Hitchens!
#32,
I do say thanks to the many men and women who serve in our armed forces. I especially say thanks to those who do it in an admirable fashion.
The CIA is in the process of covering up some of their mistakes in nearly the same fashion that ENRON did in their accounting errors. It is just plain WRONG and dishonorable to do this. It is our duty as Americans to question what they do. We elected Bush (he is president no matter what right now). He represents Americans. His actions and those of the CIA represent the United States to the international community. Yes, we are acting in self defense (or at least that is the reasoning we use). The international community does not have to agree with us. We, as Americans, have to look ourselves in the mirror and ask if we are proud to be Americans with the atrocities and torture that we are committing abroad and at home.
In my opinion, we do FAR more good than bad. Therefore, I am PROUD to call myself an American and to carry on the ninth generation of my family in this country!
As far as Iran and nuclear energy/nuclear weapons, I think that Iran will have nuclear power supplied to them by the Russians in their new nuclear power plant that is currently under construction. Iran does not need to have their own independent source of nuclear power right now. The international community is pressuring them to just accept what the Russians are selling to them.
In the long term, will Iran have a nuclear weapon? I think that they will. It is inevitable. There was another posting about going from 1941 to 1945 and producing two nuclear weapons. The amount of testing, engineering, scientific experimentation, etc. that went into that was ENORMOUS.
Think about this: $2 billion was spent on that project in 1945 dollars. Using the Rule of 72 from economics, and the average inflationary rate of about 6% since then dictates that the numerical value of the dollar increased by double every twelve years. Roughly sixty years, 2 to the fifth power is 32. This is only $64 billion dollars. With the amount of oil Iran sells to China and to Russia, this is very feasible.
Iran (and Ahmedinijad is JUST a FIGUREHEAD) is intent on fulfilling its nuclear power mission like the United States and Manifest Destiny. Note, when Putin went to Iran, he met with Ahmedinijad. Then, he met with the real head of Iran behind closed doors. There was some really serious talking going on there. What will Russia do if the US or anyone else bombs the plant? Declare it to be Russian property on foreign soil just like an embassy so that it would be a declaration of war on Russia. Now, no matter how much the international community might want to make sure that Iran might not get nuclear power, since Russia is a permanent member of the security council of the UN, NO ONE COUNTRY can vote to bomb that sight and have the approval of the UN in order to do it. This puts pressure back on the US and Israel to act DIPLOMATICALLY. PERIOD.
Hitchens is correct on many things that he writes and talks about. He is OUT there. Yet, he forces me to think about what is going on. Attack the idea, not the person. Is the idea that he is presenting valid and a logical argument (no matter how he comes up with it)? Most times, yes.
On another note, HOLY S%^T! Jolie and Freddy. WTF?!? How did you guys pull that off?
I currently weigh 315 lbs. The zone diet and working out definitely do work. Drink more water (just from the tap, though), cut out sodas, and just eat better and less. I look forward to being a far less weight and competing with these guys in say two years. With my current strength (I can do numerous things well), I think I could compete with some people. Yet, Jolie and Freddy would still just leave me in their dust...
Anyways, great vid, great article!
Comment #28 - Posted by TomC
Tom - they peaked due their socialist/statist aka incompetent management of their oil infrastructure.
They are still listed as #4 of 'proven' oil reserves in the world - but they are in a race to see whether they will lose their oil infrastructure or their water infrastructure first, both are failing fast. They've done such a bad job of managing themselves, they have to import most of their refined oil products.
What did they do with their oil money, instead of maintaining/upgrading their oil infrastructure, or developing their massive gas fields? They spent the money on ballistic missile programs, submarines, and nuclear research. Have they reversed course, and put a bunch of money into both oil/water infrastructure? Nope - but they have bought two new air defense systems from Russia.
As for the comment on Hitchens analysis - you didn't answer the main thrust of the statement you quoted. If you don't need plutonium or enriched uranium to run a civilian nuclear program, but are still working that way, isn't that a clear indication of intentions to have a military nuclear capability? Which in and of itself isn't a crime - except to gain the benefits of trade from being in compliance with nuclear non-proliferation treaty, they state they do not intend to develop military applications for nuclear power. Hitchen's point is valid - the CIA report is crap, it appears to use a political motive to undermine the elected leadership of our nations, it reduces our military and political options for leverage against a nation that loudly threatens anyone in earshot ... and to what end? Only a political agenda end, so far as I can tell - I'm thinking that's not how we would want our executive agencies to work.
I'm not picking on Iran's state run govt either - looking around, I see much of the same buffoonery in the way our state runs its programs.
Fat Slice - well stated riposte. Still, Hitchens writes awefully well and raises good questions.
Freddy C and J - congrats, can't wait to get a spare moment to watch.
Paul
can we keep the politics off this site.
John Wopat: Happy Anniversary. I'll be right behind you, celebrating my 2nd CF anniversary on New Year's Day.
Cool place you have here, Coach. Thanks again for the invite.
We did Badger yesterday. 38-ish minutes, using 85# in the first round, and 75# in the 2nd and 3rd. My grip was giving out, between the cleans and the pullups, but I made it through it. Hard workout for a hard man. Thanks for your service and sacrifice, Chief Carter.
Kind of a humorous incident.
I've had a bleeding hemorrhoid for a couple of weeks now. Nothing bad, just a normal bleeding one. I've had this in the past and went to the emergency room and was basically told there was nothing they could do for me. It always stops bleeding.
So my wife freaked out - this is the first one she knows about since we've been married. So she calls my doctor for an appointment and I get lectured by a nurse how I can't lift weights nor do anything strenuous until the 26th when they probe me. I am hitting 40 in a month or two, so I might as well get checked out to make sure it isn't anything more serious.
Makes it hard to convince my wife that I'm going to get smoked tomorrow at the local CrossFit gym.
I think its funny in a strange way.
Stuart,
enjoyed reading your post, did not agree with all of it, but it is a good read none the less.
Believe me I am not proud of the atrocities that have occurred in Iraq by (USG)...but they are isolated and few. The issue of torture, more importantly, defining it is what is at the heart of the matter. Maybe I am a stickler for definitions but detainee abuse is not necessarily torture or an atrocity. Waterboarding may be all three...I don't know. We as a nation need to decide where an interrogation ends and torture begins.
Reference you personal Zone/CF endeavor. Congratulations and good luck. Do you have a Workout Log on the msg board? Coach once said that the results are not exceptional...only the commitment to the program (WOD+nutrition/rest+intensity=CF). He also simplified it by likening it to growing plants (add water+put in sun= plant grows)
J
#13 JuanMurphy,
Well here's the thing: they DON'T have a nuclear device. (I know you didn't say "have", you said "capability to construct".) Well, they could have one, but if they do, they really have no way of knowing whether it will work or not because they haven't tested it. And furthermore, there's no way for them to know how much effort it would take to get their device working. So not having a tested device is essentially the same as not having one. Now, given that they don't have a device, there are two possible explanations: they either don't want to build one, don't have the ability to build one, or both. There are arguments for and against all three of these explanations. If they want one and don't have one, then you have to conclude that they don't have the capability to make one. This could be a testament to their lack of technological capabilities and/or the difficulty of making a nuke. I personally think it's probably some of both.
So I have to disagree that they have the capability to construct a nuclear device. When compared with the U.S. effort in WWII, I take the other side and conclude that Iran's capability is less than ours was in 1945 (still another indication that the issue is being overblown). Getting the material is definitely hard, but I still think you're sweeping a whole lot under the rug when you say "the rest can be obtained with good google searches and proper machining". I'm also not sure whether you were agreeing or disagreeing with Tom C and Justin Joiner in your comment #59.
Hitchens says,
"It has the desire to acquire the weaponry, it retains the means to do so..."
Later, he says,
"The mullahs are steadily amassing the uranium and plutonium ingredients of a weapon and will indeed soon be able to pause, along with other countries, like Japan, at the point where only a brief interlude and a swift spurt of effort would put them in full possession of the bomb."
These statements combined with the one referenced by TomC in comment #28 lead me to seriously question Mr. Hitchens credibility--hence my statement that this is quite overblown.
#40 Matt
My advice is not to worry about how much you weigh, performance should be the focus. Spec Ops is full of all different body types, there is no "one size fits all".
I'm sure you have an idea of the training requirements you will face. Identify your strengths and weaknesses and go from there.
The best advice I can give is to talk to someone who has gone through the training. Though they will not give you all the details of the specific training I'm sure they will be more than happy to offer training advice for physical readiness.
10 years ago I started my training at 155lbs. It is safe to assume that no matter what weight you are, or how strong you are, at the end of the day you will be worn out...just like CF.
Good luck with training brother!
Regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with its conclusions, the article is a good example of just how complex and nuanced the issues facing our leaders really are. Is Iran actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, merely the infrastructure to do so quickly if it wanted to, a peaceful energy program, an expensive display of national pride, a combination of the above, or none of the above? Are the benefits produced by a government organization given some degree of freedom to operate in secret outside of national and international law enough to outweigh the consequences that may occur when the people in that organization inevitably make mistakes? With the stakes so high as the loss of one of our finest young men recently reminded us, we would do well to remember when choosing our leaders how hard a job it is to chart a course for an organization as complex and powerful as the United States based only on such ever-shifting probabilities and difficult trade-offs.
#40 Matt,
Let me try to say what Elvis said in a slightly different way. More fitness (as CrossFit defines it) is better. How do you get that? Do the WODs. Furthermore, do them as Rx'd (or work towards that point). If this gets you bulkier or leans you out, it's still what you want. I've been wanting to build more muscle, and I definitely have been, but my wife tells me that I'm getting a lean, strong look instead of a lean bulky look. I don't consider this a problem since (as Elvis said) performance is the focus.
#4, MB, writes,
“First, I think the danger to the U.S. of an Iranian nuclear weapon is a bit overblown in comparison to the danger faced by Israel in that situation.”
It can be argued that the threat of Hitler was similarly overblown, since that was basically a European problem. Our membership in NATO has also been based on a threat not at our doorstep.
“Second, as an engineer, I believe that making a nuclear weapon (as opposed to a nuclear device, ala Pakistan) is vastly more difficult than this article and much of the media portray. A working nuclear device requires parts manufactured and assembled to exacting precision. Making the device into a weapon requires ensuring that none of this delicate mechanism be damaged during transport and delivery.”
As an engineer, do you believe that these obstacles will be more difficult for Iran to overcome than they were for, say, North Korea?
Oops, I meant to say "bulky, strong look" instead of "lean bulky look".
GREAT video....Awesome job One World! It's so classic that we're the naked ones in the video. I think we might be the only gym with a dress code.
Decided to row the 5000m. Butt muscles were cramping the entire time (i literally have no fat cushion, all skin and bones) but I stuck it out and made it in 20:47. Interestingly enough, the rowing times seem much more bunched together than usual times for workouts.
To Greg in post #32. I believe that there is nothing more one should need to say to an individual serving this country than "thanks". However, as a system, the job of those in uniform is to serve the country and if people in the country don't believe those policy's being employeed are correct, it is our job to speak up. That is the vary basis of a democracy. This being said, I will never have anything but the utmost support for either man or women who is carrying out commands handed down from above.
M/165lb/6'3"/21yr
I see the destroyed CIA interrogation tapes in a completely different light - self-preservation. Go back and look at the timeline - spooks went into Afghanistan and at that time, just post-9/11, no one was questioning anything we were doing. It was all good. This included the capture of a number of AQ and other people and the subsequent shipping off to GitMo. This also included somewhat "harsh" interrogation techniques - approved by the White House. Then came the backlash and fallout when the lawyers and media got involved and people started really questionining what was going on - and Iraq popped and so did Valerie Plame's outing - okay, so now the question would be: will these CIA officers, who were acting under color of lawful authority be protected for their actions? And there was this big debate, including John McCain weighing in and others on an anti-torture bill and how would that be defined and did Geneva apply and Hamdan was going before the Supreme Court. So, if you were at the CIA and those tapes existed, and officers there were suddenly NOT being given the warm fuzzy that they were going to be legally exempt from what they had been sanctioned to do by the White house, would you keep tapes of that stuff lying around for posterity (and a future CongrInt)? That's called reaping what you sow, in my mind.
So, I'm not surprised at all that the tapes got destroyed or, if I am, I'm surprised that someone there had the stones to do it. Now, whether or not this amounts to treason, I don't think so. Hitchens seems to give this Administration a complete pass for all of the nutty stuff that happens on its watch. I'll say this about ANY President - just like in the military - if it happens on your watch, it's on YOU. Wouldn't you love to hear a President step forward, like a good CO, and say: "Whatever happened in my administration, no matter which official did what, I accept responsibility for it. I will handle it appropriately and take the necessary corrective action."
As for the CIA report - Aren't they merely one of the new NID members? What does everyone else in the IC think? They say Iran abandoned its ambitions in 2003. Or, that's what being said publicly. I'm not sure what to believe, given what happened with WMD in Iraq. CIA's record of analysis (if not reporting) isn't great lately (or maybe ever). But then again, if they get it right, that doesn't get reported (or shouldn't be). I guess what it comes down to is the President's confidence in that Agency's reporting. What Hitchens (or the media) believes about the CIA isn't particularly helpful - what really matters is whether the Prez. still has confidence in them. But claims of "rogue" Agency seem wildly overblown and a product of a standard line about the Agency from the press. If the President really believes they are, he's got the aurthority to fix it.
I suspect that frequently the Agency takes the public relations smackdown for actions taken on the Presdient's behalf - can anyone say "plausible deniability"?
Can anyone explain why all my posts are getting caught. I am using correct punctuation and everything. This is frustrating.
David J.
#77 Hari,
North Korea has only succeeded in a nuclear device. As I said earlier, there's a huge difference between a device and a weapon. There is also reasonable evidence that their device didn't work correctly. The Oct. 9 test only measured 4.2 on the Richter scale. This and other evidence have led to estimates that the yield of their device was between 0.5-1 kiloton--much less than past nuclear weapons. My point still stands.
Using the Hitler similarity ignores all the details of the current situation that make it different. It's beneficial to look at history to look at possible outcomes, but comparison to Hitler does nothing to demonstrate the likelihood of Iran being the next Germany.
This is a much narrower issue that the rambling prose of the article suggests. Whether the CIA has been an effective counterintelligence agency is a much different question than whether they are loyal to the current administration. The CIA disobeyed a judge's order to not destroy the tapes. They did not disobey a policy or order of the executive or president, nor were their actions an act of treason(a betrayal of trust or confidence, an act against the United States). I assume the title of the article was meant a little tongue in cheek.
They should be an effective branch of the executive in protecting the American People through counterintelligence activities abroad.
The tapes that were destroyed involved interrogations from quite some time ago. The investigation was closed, and the tapes were not destroyed. A federal judge ordered that they not be destroyed and the CIA destroyed them giving the rationale that their existence jeopardized the safety of different agents.
The more interesting issue is whether a federal judge should be able to dictate the policies and conduct of an agency that is conducting counterintelligence activities abroad. Another interesting question is whether foreign nationals on foreign soil enjoy any of the rights bestowed upon United States Citizens by the Bill of Rights. If they do not then a federal judge has no jurisdiction unless it is pursuant to a federal statute. I'm curious if anybody knows more about the particulars of this judge's order and the grounds for him making it?
#71
You obviously don't know that politics is partially what goes on here on rest days.
One point no one has brought up yet is the fact that the CIA has been broken since the 70's when Jimmy Carter and his predecessors, who all hated the CIA and didn't trust them, decided that Human Intelligence (Humint) could not be done with "immoral people" as its sources. As any cop knows, if you want to obtain valuable info that will make a difference, you have to do business with crooks. They are the ones with the info you need to prevent crime from happening or catch those who are committing crime. Because of this we have been losing valuable intelligence for the last 30+ years from the most accurate sources, people with eyes on the target. How trustworthy the info is will always be a problem but this is why we vet sources and have to independently verify info.
This also led to an increase in Signal Intelligence (Sigint), think NSA, which Afghanistan has shown us is easy to counter. Just go into a cave and satellites can't find you.
It also doesn't help that career Intelligence officers are told what to do by a political appointee. Whose first experience with Intel work is probably when they are appointed head of CIA. Kind of a disconnect if you ask me.
As far as the lead up to Iraq, the CIA was told to find the info that would help make the case to invade. Not, tell us what you have found and lets see if the evidence is enough to conclude that Iraq had WMD's. It was the Office of Special Plans, Dick Cheney's private intel service he started which was manned by his neocon buddies that spearheaded this effort. He did not like what the CIA was telling him so he created his own intel office that would mold existing intel to use for his purposes. The Office of Special Plans was not staffed with intel professionals, but instead with neocons that adhere to the ideology and policy decisions that have been wrong from the beginning.
DISCLAIMER: I was a Marine for 4 years and now I am in the National Guard. I am not a conspiracy theorist or a liberal PC weanie. I just want to state facts about an adminstration that I have not agreed with in their policy decisions. The ideology and policies are inherently flawed.
I recommend the book "See No Evil" to everyone. It's written by Robert Baer, a former CIA spy in the Middle East.
It's a very interesting read; it takes no political sides and you learn that the "fall from glory" of the CIA was rooted in politics, period.
The idea that the CIA should be eliminated in nonsense. The whole reason that 9/11 happened was because we had a lack of intelligence right? Well, whose job is that? Whose job will it be if its gone? Overhaul is necessary, elimination is not.
One of our biggest problems is a lack of arabic and other ME language-speaking agents and field-ops. It's hard to gather alot of intelligence when you have only a handful of people to speak the language.
Anyway, check out the book...the movie "Syriana" was very loosely based on a story in this book. Good read.
#81, MB,
Is your point that the time to act (if ever) is after Iran has a nuclear device, but before it has a nuclear weapon?
My examples in #77 of Hitler and the Soviet Union were not to suggest that the situation with Iran is the same, but to suggest that we have a history of defending our allies.
I think your assertion that the threat to Israel is far greater than to us is a weak point. But it does seem to illustrate that you see the possibility of Iran acquiring a nuclear device as a real threat, just not to us directly.
#84
Nazi war criminals also claimed to be following orders for their atrocities. Should they have gotten a pass based on this? What is the difference now other than the fact that it is Americans committing the crimes?
Not much of a CF results poster as I am new to CF but had to post my latest results from FRAN
11:00 as Rx'd, beat my previuos time by 3:45 which was on 11-16-07. CF is working for me!
Jeff,
I agree. "See No Evil" is an excellent book. Has anyone read Valerie Plame's book?
#84, Dale_Saran, writes,
"I'll say this about ANY President - just like in the military - if it happens on your watch, it's on YOU. Wouldn't you love to hear a President step forward, like a good CO, and say: 'Whatever happened in my administration, no matter which official did what, I accept responsibility for it. I will handle it appropriately and take the necessary corrective action.'"
I completely agree with the principle that the ultimate responsibility rests with the commander. But who is the CIA's "commander?" To me, the commander is the Director of the CIA. For the president to take responsibility at this point seems almost like the president taking responsibility for a mistake at NASA.
On the other hand, I have heard the president assert that DOJ is investigating and he will reserve comment until the investigation is completed. There exists the distinct possibility that the CIA did not do anything illegal.
#71 - Bravo, great post. Always good to remember that we should not do what we did with the Soviet Union, assume they are a superpower that can get things done through a huge ideological buearacracy. Also agree that our government can and does fall into that same trap.
#88 - No value added.
Yesterday Me and some friends did a workout that I wanted to dedicate to Det. Nguyen who was taken from the Sacramento Sheriffs Department on 12-19-07.
The workout is typical crossfit, extremely dynamic:
Tabata Bottom to Bottom squats (4 intervals)
Max Push Ups
Tabata Box Jumps (4 intervals)
Max Sit Ups
Tabata Row (4 intervals)
Max Push Ups
Tabata Tire Flips (4 intervals)
Max Sit Ups
2 Rounds with a 2 min rest in between.
It was a reminder to never quit or give up because its hard. In the end we go home at the end of it where others do not. Keep track of number of reps and always try to improve.
Prayers go out to his family and other fellow Deputies.
Did one from the Santa Cruz site today:
25 Walking lunge steps
20 Pull-ups - assisted with trainer holding my feet - I'm getting so close I can taste it!
50 Box jumps, 20 inch box
20 Double-unders - almost did them all in a row but my pants fell down - thank you Zone
25 dips - assisted with trainer holding feet
20 Knees to elbows - looked pathetic - need to work on
30 Kettlebell swings (30#)
30 Sit-ups
20 Hang squat cleans (20# dumbbells)
25 Back extensions (on exercise ball w/ feet planted)
30 Wall ball shots (16#)
5 Modified Rope climb ascents
Didn't time - think it took about 40 min.
Now I'm eating a piece of yummy, yummy holiday cheesecake that my co-worker made. Can't wait until the holidays are over so I can get back in the rx'd zone i/o the "modified zone" as I like to call it.
Great job Freddie and Jolie! You are animals. Hopefully I'll get to meet you both at the Oly Lifting cert in Feb.
MB,
my point is that all that is required for a nuclear yield is U235 or P239 and getting them to critical mass.
There are two ways to get a chain reaction. One is to have a critical mass of the highly enriched material, the other is through intense pressure. The next component is yield which relates directly to technology. It takes a great deal of technology and a very sophisticated program for the highest of yields. Little Boy, was neither sophisticated nor high yeild...it was ingenious but certainly doable if you have the material and scientific know-how.
The enriching process for weapons grade material is a singular endeavor for a singular purpose. It is not simply the by-product of an atomic energy program. Thankfully, with todays technology it is a difficult thing to hide, as it takes huge resources and time.
So, right now Iran does not have an atomic weapon. Unchecked and unchallenged it is simply a matter of time.
So when you are building the infrastructure to create U235, I have to assume that you can machine it. The rest is relatively easy.
As far as my comment #59...I am disagreeing with Tom's assumption that their nuclear program is for power based on "past peak oil production" and Justin Joiner's assertion that intent to build a nuclear weapon can only be proved by statements made by Ahmadinejad. Point being that there is no other reason to build enrichment facilities of that type...unless it is to create weapons grade material.
To respond to the yield comment in 81 I have no idea what design they were testing, but building an implosion device with sub-critical masses is very precise and extremely difficult. That is probably where they failed. A critical mass or super critical mass device is less effective, generally speaking, but I would not want to be less than a few miles away from it when it goes off.
Dale,
comparing the WMD in Iraq intel w/ atomic weapons in Iran intelligence is a slippery slope. The trick in chemical/biological weapons is dispersal not production. Production can be done on an exponentially smaller signature...much harder to see when compared to production on a national scale being the "long pole in the tent"
#91, MikeeG, writes,
"Nazi war criminals also claimed to be following orders for their atrocities. Should they have gotten a pass based on this? What is the difference now other than the fact that it is Americans committing the crimes?"
Waterboarding is comparable to the Nazi war crimes? Killing millions of innocent people is no different than waterboarding a few terrorists?
#91,MikeeG, nazi, schmatzi, lets play yahtzee.
#82, Jeff: I'll second that; "See No Evil" is a great book; the movie "Syriana" is a fairy tale. Kate, Bingo: thanks for the CF birthday wishes.
Best video yet, Tony! CFB/CFNY anytime soon?
Best,
Jon
M/22/6'1"/185
My legs were still beat from yesterday and today's 5K run's, but c'mon, who can resist a 5k row?
17:56. Just as I hoped, sub 18.
And just to make sure that I won't ever walk right again... Tabata Row = 127
Sometimes, I think aloud, how awesome is this and what the hell was I thinking before
The USA existed for 150 years without the CIA. Those 150 years were our best. The USA is the leading terrorist state if you use our own definition of a terrorism. I don't see Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, N. Korea invading multiple countries, assassinating leaders of other nations and pushing friendly dictators into power.
What happened to our core American values? I love what this country was founded on but this country has become the leading tyranny in the world.
I'm sure the citizens of Nazi Germany were patriotic and thought they were justified for what they were doing.
#90 Hari,
I wasn't really trying to make a strong point about when/whether to act. Just that there might not be as much danger as one might think.
I would agree that my Israel point is weaker than the others. I was thinking about it more from a practical point of view. If the U.S. and Israel are in a game of chicken where flinching equates to launching military action against Iran because of it's nuclear program, then my point was that Israel would unquestionably flinch first provided that we hold out long enough. Your observation about our history of defending allies is valid although I would say possibly a little exaggerated due to the nature of the specific example you chose. However, should that be used as the basis for deciding whether we should defend our allies in this case?
Again, as you say, everything in the previous paragraph is somewhat weak. However, it takes on a much greater significance when you view it in light of current U.S. military reality. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have stretched the U.S. military to its limits. And it simply does not have the resources to open up another protracted engagement in Iran. With a very limited strategic military flexibility, it is reasonable to consider the possibility of avoiding more strains in issues where other countries have a larger concern.
This brings up another interesting issue--the possibility that the NIE helped the U.S. by opening up more possibilities for negotiating with Iran to get a desirable solution in Iraq. I first heard this idea in the first link I supplied in comment #4. It's mentioned towards the end of the post. Stratfor's support for this argument is very reasonable. And true or not, it's an interesting (if not essential) possibility to consider.
I spent the week in DC where I go the opportunity to visit Primal Fitness on Wednesday. When was the last time you met a dozen people and really liked every single one? For me it doesn't happen very often but it did there. Thanks Jesse for the hospitality and the workout! I will definitely go back next time I am in DC. Good luck with the vomitorium tomorrow.
I'll be making up "Badger" today or tomorrow. RIP brother!
JP
RE: the article let me start with a quote
"Its criminality and arrogance could perhaps have been partially excused if it had ever got anything right"
Any author who can (as I read it) say that the CIA never got anything right has to be questioned. Of course they've gotten stuff right, of course they've gotten stuff wrong. And right or wrong, they are not going to be abolished. Maybe they should be reworked, but I'd rather read about that plan from somebody who can write with a little more balance.
Matt #40
When I first started Crossfit I wanted to add about 10 pounds, because I thought it would look better. I decided to do just the WOD and see what happened, no supplements. Just like MB said , I had a similar response from my wife. She said that I had been bigger before, but never looked as good as I do now. If you want size because you think it will make you stronger, then again, I would say reconsider. The WOD will make you plenty strong. I don't know how much traveling you've done, but if you go to some third world countries, you will find some very small workers who can haul a whole mess of weight around. They're stronger than a lot of big bodybuilders I know. Especially if you're going into special forces, functionality is everything. Just my thoughts. BTW, are you already in the service? If not, welcome.
1. My degree is nuke engineering, and my specialization is Nuclear Weapons and Effects.
Someone up there talked about our WWII nuke weapons program and said that if we could do it working from 1941 to 1945, Iran can do it now. That time period refers to the Manhattan Project, which was the culmination of over two decades of research and innovation by some of the best minds in history. We didn't just come up with fission weapons in four years, and the people who finally did create them are minds that probably have no equal in modern day Iran.
Someone also talked about the distinction between devices and weapons. Iran can certainly create an relatively low yield implosion type fission weapon. Anyone can, assuming they have a bachelor's level education in physics or preferably nuclear engineering and access to fissionable material. However, the size and weight of such a device would require a tracked or multi wheel transport vehicle, and even so would still be too low yield to do much more than destroy part of a small city. Its highly improbable that Iran would be able to get such a construct through its own country without international detection, much less across any borders. Ballistic delivery is beyond Iran's capability at this point, unless they have achieved a level of sophistication completely unknown to the general scientific community.
North Korea would have a much easier time developing this level of sophistication simply because they do not have to maintain a working economy or the level of order a 'normal' society like Iran enjoys.
2. Waterboarding? Seriously? Hazing was worse than what any of our so called torture victims went through, and it wasn't especially savage or traumatic. You want torture, look at what happened to our guys who were captured near Yousifiya, Iraq last year. Spare me the 'duty, honor, country' speech, or at least find an issue that's worth getting that dramatic over.
3. I thought the article was a little ridiculous, and yeah, Salon.com is about on par with Maxim as far as journalistic quality, but this Hutchins guy doesn't deserve to be dismissed just because he drinks a lot. I drink a lot too. Anyone who doesn't love beer is probably a communist (the real enemy).
Ok fine, so everyone doesn't love beer...but I do.
#15 Fat Slice-
Best post I've read in days! I'm sitting w/ my bro in a coffee shop (both on leave) and I laughed out loud-the kind of laugh that you're embarrassed just escaped you...do I really like vanilla...classic! I'm bootlegging it!
I also chose not to read the dribble. The fallout from Abu Ghraib, has in my experience, made interrogations nearly useless. We have limited our approaches to essentially 'tactial questioning' - even for our trained interrogators - the oversight in theater is oppressive. The atmosphere is not one of victory, but CYA.
This week we did our own little crossfit olypmics, Murphy, Linda, and tomorrow is Fran. I'm trying to kill my younger brother because he's actually been Zoning while I've been talking about it--he's down nearly 20 lbs, and 6% body fat-making me look like little fat, angry man.
Merry Christmas to all.
bsn
Wow. Totally forgot to talk about my workout. I got caught up in the article and comments.
So I ran the 5K today, kind of. I was eager to try out the POSE method (or at least a resemblance of it from what I can make out from online research). I ran on a track and just did 3 miles even. I didn't time it but I know I was running about an 8 minute/mile pace. Normally when I run (heel-striking) I lose air faster than I lose my legs. At the end of a run, I would always feel like my legs could keep going but I didn't have the stamina. After running today on the balls of my feet, I finished the run with all the air in the world and my legs were TIRED. My calves were tight, my quads were tight, everything was tight and fatigued. It was great! And it felt right. I'm definitely using different muscles, but I'm finally looking forward to running again (can't believe I just said that, I've always HATED running). Then went for a few laps in the pool afterwards to work on swimming technique. Next run, I'll up my speed to try and find a balance between running fast enough that breathing isn't so easy, but paced enough that my legs hold out. Anybody else experienced very different results from changing their running technique? Similar?
#104, MB, writes,
"The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have stretched the U.S. military to its limits. And it simply does not have the resources to open up another protracted engagement in Iran. With a very limited strategic military flexibility, it is reasonable to consider the possibility of avoiding more strains in issues where other countries have a larger concern."
Then this is primarily an argument about the optimal utilization of our limited resources? (As are most political arguments.)
The marginal benefits of stopping Iran are greater to Israel than to us. The marginal costs are higher for us than for Israel, since as you point out, we are currently stretched thin.
Thus it seems that we are not arguing about whether there is value to the US in stopping Iran; we are simply arguing about whether that value is worth the cost. Is that a fair summary of your position?
Jolie/Freddy Nice video. You Guys are the best!
hub #108: yeah, the only 5k I've ever run (2007-11-29) was in Vibram Five Fingers, i.e. functionally barefoot, i.e. almost impossible to run heel-strike style. (I'm saying my POSE form was probably still not great, but I definitely wasn't heel-pounding.) The limiting factor was muscle fatigue in the legs, not wind. That was a strange experience, since my wind is usually my weak point!
Need some help...one of the affiliate websites has a WOD they post for travelers...I can't find it and I might need it this weekend...
Anyone know where that is?
Thanks in advance!
47/M/175
I'm new to crossfit. I'm curios, is it common practice to spend 3 days busting ass in cohesive support of one another and then spend you're rest period bitching and whinnig about the administration?
Sounds like day at the firehouse. I should fit right in here.
A small but important piont on torture/aggressive interigation tacticts. If I abuse you in hope of changing you're view on a matter or to persuade you to express views you don't believe in, I'll have little success. But if I want you to tell me where you parked you're car, you're goning to be happy to tell me sooner or latter.
If you're car is loaded with explosives I'm going to be happy to have had this chat.
December 21, 2007
Friday
"Cindy"
Complete as many rounds in 20 minutes as you can of:
5 Pull-ups
10 Push-ups
15 Squats
As Rx'd 10 rounds. Avg hr 137.
Spinning class 47 Min. Avg hr 125.
FireBoy #113,
it is not always "bitching and whining" on rest days. Sometimes we read poetry...really.
#113 -- FireBoy181
Yeah, this is SOP for Crossfit. We spend every fourth day repeating what we read in the newspapers and pretending we thought it up ourselves.
Making a nuclear device out of highly enriched uranium is so easy, a caveman could do it. Making that nuclear device into a weapon that can reliably delivered to an enemy is not as easy, but still within the capabilities of nearly any country in the first- or second-world category. If you look at our nuclear history, the two bombs dropped in Japan were completely different in design and materials. The one made with plutonium was tested (at the Trinity site) to make sure it would work before it was deployed. The other, made with uranium, was not tested because the scientists were absolutely positive it would work and no test was needed. Done with technology that is over 60 years old, the engineering of the device was done in less than two years.
It would be foolish of us to assume the NIE really means that Iran is not persuing nuclear weapons. Even if they have stopped weapons engineering research, they could have gained the technical knowledge (or assistance) to build a weapon before 2010.
For any MDs out there, I have a totally random question.
A little background...I was married on 9/1 of this year. The Saturday before my wedding, I was playing in a football game and cut my chin on someone's head. The cut was deep and wide and required stitches. Instead of getting stitches, I finished the game, went home to clean up my chin, and put a band aid on it. I didn't want stickes in my face for the wedding (I don't think my wife would have been thrilled about it either). So anyway, I left it alone and eventually it closed and developed a scar. About a month ago I slammed the scar on my chin with a bar while doing power cleans. The scar reopened into a cut. I finished the workout and handled it just as I did the time before (although this time the cut was not as deep). Eventually it healed and redeveloped a scar. Last night, I realized that the scar was itching. Today the itching is increasing, a bump is developing under the scar, and it is getting red. Is it infected? If so, how can I treat it? I was thinking about going to a Dermatologist to recut and sew it but I am having a hard time getting an appointment before the end of the year. I decided to cut off my rediculously expensive insurance and work at the end of the year and try my luck with the VA. Needless to say, I'd rather not have a VA doctor cutting into my face and sewing me up unless totally necessary.
Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks,
Chris
Hey Matt (comment #40),
I successfully navigated SF selection and the "Q" course in '99', worked around AFSOC and NSW folks too. My own opinion is that you have to be able to carry a load. This requires putting miles on your feet and varying the weight in your ruck. My trainup to SFAS from 6mos out to the day before I reported: running 15-20mi/wk; rucking 18-22mi/wk; swimming 1-2mi/wk; weight training twice/day x4days/wk. My ruck loads increased according to distance and I would ramp it up and down during the week according to run intensity/ lifting schedule(4mi@95lbs+6qts h20,8mi@75lbs+h20, 12mi@55lbs+h20). I had to learn to fix a broken ruck on the go. The ruck had a hard time with the 4mi, heavy load ruck run. I would maintain this schedule for 60days and then change up for 30 days to do a more Crossfit like schedule. The day before I started SFAS I knocked out squats@315lbs x10repsx10sets with 60 sec split and finished with a 1/2 mile swim in boots and uniform. During selection I had no issues with my feet or strength, my speed was steady and I had a decent reserve to help get over the fatigue factor. I would call my trainup method "unlimited time and effort" and it took 4-5hrs/day when you throw in travel and onsite recovery. Looking back at this method and comparing it to the Crossfit WODs, I would say keep doing the Crossfit and try to puke on them at least once a week. If you throw in swimming 1mi total/wk, rucking with 55lbs+6qts h20 for 4-8mi 2-3 times/wk along with your running you should see success AND save yourself about 3hrs/day compared to the insanity I cooked up.
If this is helpful and/ or you need clarification just ask. I can also forward you on to some outstanding operators that are much better than I.
Boy there sure is a lot of whining that we don't have a legit. reason to go war w/Iran anymore.Go cry somewhere else.
As Mc Cain stated we executed Japanese soldiers for waterboarding US troops in WW2.
then we give ourselves a pass for doing the same thing now,cause we're No.#1?
In response to Apolloswabbie (Post #71)
> Tom - they peaked due their socialist/statist aka
> incompetent management of their oil infrastructure.
That may or may not be. Many of the world's oil fields have arguably been mismanaged. Some of that is due to ignorance, some of that is due to stupidity. I have not looked deeply into how the Iranians managed their oil, so I cannot make an informed statement regarding their practices. The fact of the matter is that they have peaked and at some point in the future they will either need to import oil, cut consumpiton, or move to another energy source. Perhaps all three.
> They've done such a bad job of managing themselves, they
> have to import most of their refined oil products.
Yeah, that's a kicker. They produce all this crude, but cannot refine it.
> What did they do with their oil money, instead of
> maintaining/upgrading their oil infrastructure, or
> developing their massive gas fields? They spent the money
> on ballistic missile programs, submarines, and nuclear
> research. Have they reversed course, and put a bunch of
> money into both oil/water infrastructure? Nope - but they
> have bought two new air defense systems from Russia.
Note, I am not an apologist for the Iranians, but given the fact that the US frequently talks about attacking them, perhaps these investments in military hardware are not unjustified. Also with regard to nuclear research, if they really want nuclear energy, nuclear research would not be money wasted. It also strikes me as somewhat hypocritical of us to chastise them for buying military hardware. The US outspends everyone on defense. If the Iranians buy air defense systems from Russia, that's their choice. It might be an unwise one, but that's another issue.
> As for the comment on Hitchens analysis - you didn't
> answer the main thrust of the statement you quoted. If you
> don't need plutonium or enriched uranium to run a civilian
> nuclear program
Two things here. The main thrust of the statement with which I disagreed was that the Iranians have no need for nuclear power. I would argue that they may need nuclear power due to the fact that they are looking at declining oil production from now until the end of time. I included the previous sentence in the Hitchens quote to provide context.
Secondly, I think you do need enriched uranium for nuclear power. However, I'm not a nuclear engineer, so I fully acknowledge that I may be mistaken. Plutonium, as I understand it, is one of many byproducts from certain reactor types.
I think you and I are actually in agreement on some issues here. I suggest the energy picture for the Iranians is a troubled one. In fact, it is troubled for all of us. That the Iranians may really desire civilian nuclear power should not be dismissed out of hand as a complete lie.
39/M/168
I did a rest day yesterday, so today I tried a scaled version of the workout on the video:
CFWUx3(no pullups)
3 rounds:
10 pullups (1st round all real, mostly negs after that)
10 30# DB Thrusters
15 BW Deadlifts
19:30
#109 Hari,
I'd say that's fair, although that aspect of my position wasn't the primary motivation for my original post. Read on for my main concern.
#98 JuanMurphy,
We agree on most things. Where we may differ is intent. Nuclear weapons understandably generate lots of fear in people. The mere mention of the possibility can incite people into significant action out of fear. I believe that fear is rarely (if ever) a good motivation for action (especially drastic action). Danger is a good one, fear is not. The two are easy to confuse, but there is an important distinction. My purpose is to moderate the possibility of manipulation through fear by presenting a realistic picture of the technical difficulties involved in (and therefore the likelihood of a country) building a nuclear weapon.
So I whole heartedly agree with you in your statement "it takes huge resources and time". However, I don't like the statements, "Unchecked and unchallenged it is simply a matter of time" and "The rest is relatively easy." I don't disagree with them (except maybe for the omission of intent and action on their part). I just think statements like that, while technically correct, are very fear-generating.
You seem to focus on the easy parts when you say, "The 'critical' element (pun intended) is the material....the rest can be obtained with good google searches and proper machining...so I would not call it overblown." Building a nuclear weapon is only as easy as its hardest part. I wish to bring people's attention to the hard parts--the material, and the transition from nuclear device to nuclear weapon--and say that the people who ignore those are exaggerating the danger.
Thanks for the stimulating discussion thus far. I think it has helped me clarify my own thoughts on the issue. Am I paranoid for quibbling about such a trivial issue as a little fear? Well that's a different discussion.
#99
Are you trying to misrespresent my point? A war crime is a war crime. When I said there is no difference, I meant there is no difference bewtween both groups committing crimes and saying they are "just following orders". The Nazis didn't get a pass because they committed the crimes and following orders is no excuse. They were expected to hold themselves to a higher, legal standard. I'm pretty sure even 'just torturing a few terrorists' is illegal. And one would think that we as Americans would be expected to hold ourselves to a legal standard as well.
No rest for the snowy. We have a great dump coming in here in Colorado. Heading up to the mountains for some resort turns.
Jolie is awesome! My 7 year girl (who's name is also Jolie) loves her and insists that shes stronger than those boys. All looked good in that video, great job.
Howdy,
Just acquired an older concept 2 rower for $75. Rowing is now possible.
Row 5K (first time doing this workout) 19:10 (negative split the second 2500m: 9:40 then 9:30).
MB,
great response. I will apologize in advance for this post as I am now tapping away on a PDA...so it so it will look even less thought out than my normal post.
....just erased my post...will readdress when I get home.
M/56/205/70
First things first; 500 reps SDHP 18:50.
Americans love the idea of fair play and seem constantly surprised when people like Iran and North Korea lie to avoid sanctions or gain an advantage. In a real fight, a fight for your life, there are no rules. Only survival. Our enemies understand this. Why don't we?
The US existed for 150 years without the CIA. Those 150 years were our best (minus the slavery). How could any nation that holds freedom as an ideal have a secretive organization that assassinates people in other countries and places "friendly" dictators into power? We don't need protection from terrorists, the world needs protection from us.
The US is the leading terrorist group in the world if you use our own definition of terrorism. I don't see Iran, Syria, Cuba, Venezuela, or N. Korea invading countries and abducting citizens of other countries. I'm sure many Germans in the first half of the 20th century thought they were justified for what they were doing.
JEEEEEZZZZZ,
what is with all the sorrow for the "torture" victims? WHO CARES?!?!?! People get shot in war, get tortured by governments, starved by the economy, fired by thier employers, killed in car accidents, mugged by thieves, ripped off by car salesmen. IT IS A FACT OF LIFE. If any government needs to know something, they will maim and torture to find out. It doesn't always work but of course thier are alternate means of extracting information as well. The CIA doesn't have to apologize to anyone for "waterboarding" terrorists or whatever the buzzword is today. It is none of your business. Stop worrying about it and drive your SUV. America has people that live in places you send 50 cents a day to help a small child just so you can drive your rediculous car, live in your rediculous house, and do CFIT without too much worry about being "waterboarded" yourself.
Look, if Americans were to respond to the kidnapping, torture, and decapitation of soldiers and contractors in Iraq by saying "HEY, THATS INHUMAN AND ILLEGAL!" Arabs in general would LAUGH IN YOUR FACE! do you see how stupid that sounds?
Believe it or not, your own personal moral compass would not steer a country to high ground, rather it would steer it into the ground. Soldiers kill things when the Gvnt tells them to. point blank. how is Killing less evil than torturing? the answer is, they are niether one "evil" if done for the right reasons. Can we all agree that security is a pretty damn good reason to torture or kill someone? Hell it may be the only reason. Just understand that the Gvnt isn't plucking random people off the street and beating them with canes while driving nails into thier fingers for the fun of it. Hell if we keep talking about torture then wal mart is gonna try it to "boost" sales.
On the nuclear issue:
i know very little about what it takes to create a nuclear weapon or nuclear energy. doesn't matter much to me. MY point is that Iran seems to want nuclear ENERGY. I have yet to hear ahmedenijad say otherwise. The only way this is going to affect the United States would be vicariously through Israel. They clearly have a desire to remain dominant over the middle east using our tax dollars and our forces and technology. over 1 trillion dollars since 1947. Yep $1,000,000,000,000. For what i ask? stability? security (this is laughable considering the numerous times we have caught mossad agents spying on our gvnt secrets)? it must be economy...because we all know without israels chief export to the united states (spies) we wouldn't be able to drive nice cars. if you can tell me what justifies constant pressure for us to blow every other middle eastern country off the map and 1 trillion dollar friendship with israel PLEASE DO!
So without proof of either desire or possesion of nuclear weapons, the mass media including this moron hitchins, is trying to rally us to the war cause. The only people who want or need that war are israelis, and frankly im not willing to volunteer one ounce, minute or dollar in order to help that literal money drain.
Personally i would like to see Iran in charge of the middle east. Assuming they could stabilize the region. maybe then we could actually make money from a middle eastern country, rather than throwing it away.
P.S.
i know the likelyhood of an iranian run "stable" govnt is pretty low to non-existant, i do however prefer a truce with a tenative partner over full submission to a lying, spying, manipulative ally.
As a general rule, Hitchens is insightful, clever, and a master wordsmith, regardless of being an admitted “drink-sodden ex-Trotskyist popinjay”. Fat Slice, Comment #27. Of course, Hitchens' and David Horowitz's stuff needs to be read with great caution because of the danger of an intellectual relapse following their post pubescent idolization of a species of socialism. Hitchens' is also a confirmed iconoclast, which is why he published a book titled “God Is Not Great” and a column entitled with the impractical, undesirable cry to “Abolish the CIA”. He is also an evangelical atheist, which reveals something about his insecurity with his beliefs.
He's still fun to listen to. At least Hitchens surfaces the problem that the CIA is an out of control, pinko agency, with its own brand of Bush hatred and its own foreign policy. What the CIA needs is called a “melt and repour”.
Hitchens is not very analytical about the current problem of the CIA's National Intelligence Estimate. It's a simple read, intended for a gullible audience but anyone can look at it. Click on it at http://www.dni.gov/. The first five of the nine pages are boilerplate, so just skip to page 6.
But when you skip over the first six pages you omit the section on “Estimates of Likelihood” where the CIA puts its terms of confidence on a linear scale. This is an attempt to quantify its subjective scenario to give it an objective appearance. The IPCC did the same thing with its climate modeling in its Fourth Assessment Report. It's still all subjective.
Also when you skip the boilerplate, you miss that “Once approved by the NIB [National Intelligence Board], NIEs are briefed to the President and senior policymakers.” Not this time! Approved or not, the C