August 11, 2007

Saturday 070811

Rest Day

AnnieDLGood3Bad-th.jpg

Enlarge image

Left, good deadlift starting position. Next three, common deadlift faults


AFT's Got Bounce - video [wmv] [mov]


"The Nuclear Threat from China" by Mark Helprin, The Washington Post

Post thoughts to comments.


Posted by lauren at August 11, 2007 5:28 PM
Comments

Awesome jumping Brett. You should see him do a 50+ inch box jump.

Comment #1 - Posted by: Intent at August 10, 2007 8:18 PM

awesome jumping. I am probably a foot taller than him and can't do that.

Comment #2 - Posted by: Jason at August 10, 2007 8:28 PM

I wanted to speak out for a minute on this rest day.

Thank you Tony Budding and Andy Petranek for the interview two weeks ago. It was a great time.

Thank you Greg and Lauren Glassman for the courage to put it on the front page or any page for that manner. You have done more for me than I can ever repay. I am sure you got a rash of crap for your decision. As crude as I came across to some and misunderstood by others, I believe you knew what I meant.

To those who liked it and thought it was encouraging: I am glad you got the point. It is not about what you can do, it is about what you are willing to try and not accept failure.

To those who took offense- I don't know what to tell you. you either miss understood me or you might just be what I was talking about. Fear not, however, redemption is only one workout away.

To my personal detractors- Perfection escapes me and I have failed to chase it with the attention it is due. No excuses.

Rest Days- These days are no time to curl up in a ball and go beta. Get in here, 'Have a take, and do not suck'.

Comment #3 - Posted by: CCTJOEY at August 10, 2007 8:28 PM

nice hops

Comment #4 - Posted by: steve from OK at August 10, 2007 8:34 PM

the only time you don't want to lie about your height (i'm 5'3" and usually add an inch or so) is when you've just done a sweet jump like that!

Comment #5 - Posted by: anna h at August 10, 2007 8:39 PM

CCTJOEY- Your priorities are straight. Your job requires it. Ninja's rule!! America Rules!! Move out and draw fire...yeeeeehawwrghhh!!
obstacle course X5...moving.

Comment #6 - Posted by: Jason at August 10, 2007 8:44 PM

I cannot see how reducing our tactical nuclear weapons from 10,000 to 1,800 is a sign of weakness. 1,800 is still enough to destroy the entire world a few dozen times over. I don't see how that can embolden the Chinese.

If, in 1987, our weapons cache was a 500:1 ratio, isn't it more likely that's what made them determined to catch up to us? Nuclear weapons just seem like a pissing match beyond a certain point. Nothing more.

Can anyone here back up the science behind an EMP bomb taking out every communications system in the country? Seems like the writer should site the scientific source for that claim.

If it's true, it is alarming. But the writer also sites the very unlikely possibilty that China would start a world war over Taiwan. Aside from a new regime with an extreme ideology, it could never be worth their while.

Comment #7 - Posted by: Chris at August 10, 2007 8:46 PM

Ninja's originally came from China...Ninja's are extreme. AND SNEAKY. Study what China does in regards to starting wars in Africa. Sneaky. Guerilla warfare ninja's I am telling you.

Comment #8 - Posted by: Jason at August 10, 2007 8:50 PM

43yo/male

My second Rest Day since starting CF. I really need it. Too bad I have to cut the grass in 100+ degree heat tomorrow...

Comment #9 - Posted by: win at August 10, 2007 8:52 PM

A strategically placed EMP (just one) can wreak havoc on a city. Look at the madness that happened in Louisiana. Imagine numerouse EMPs!!! Strategically placed highly motivated guerilla warfighters located in the States could start mass insanity relatively quickly with the help of EMPs sent from elsewhere. I'm telling you...Ninjas. Think extreme. Highly mobile, sneaky, plain closed insurgents in the States inciting chaos with relative ease due to emergency systems being down...CHAOS!!! And then the liberals take our darn guns and then we won't be able to protect ourselves from each other...the insanity!!! I'm freakin out just thinking about it!!

Comment #10 - Posted by: Jason at August 10, 2007 9:02 PM

Since the US is financing the Iraq war with money borrowed from China, they will probably just gradually absorb us over the next 100 years. USA is becoming the new Europe.

On a brighter note, check out this multi-dimensional treadmill. Think of the possibilities.

http:/
/www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQw1tsgrJOs&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ec00lstuff%2Ecom%2F820%2FOmni%5Fdir
ectional%5Ftreadmill%5F%5Fa%5Fstep%5Fforward%5Fin%5FVR%2F

Comment #11 - Posted by: generalstrike91107 at August 10, 2007 9:03 PM

Air Marshall!

Comment #12 - Posted by: gaucoin at August 10, 2007 9:03 PM

Imagine what would happen if just one EMP hit a major city that had insurgent like people prepared to help escalate the insanity (case study: New Orleans). NOw imagine mulitple EMP's sent via rocket oversease while large quantities of guerilla warfare proficient "ninjas" are located strategically throughout the U.S.. The insanity and feasibility of it is driving me nuts!

Comment #13 - Posted by: Jason at August 10, 2007 9:06 PM

wowww I wish I had hops like that.

CCT Joey- Your interview was one of the funniest interviews I've ever seen and I liked the insightful thing you said about how taking a person's liberty away allows them to feel not responsible and that is why that particular system doesn't work. You also mentioned that there have been many examples of that happening before and it never worked.

I'm 23 and haven't paid nearly as much attention to the political system as I should. Can you tell me an example or two of the liberal system failing because people had their liberty taken away and no longer felt responsible?

Comment #14 - Posted by: Brandon at August 10, 2007 9:07 PM

Chris-
I don't think he's saying that we should expect an EMP strike on our satellites or a decisive engagement with Taiwan next month. What he is saying is that at the strategic/policy level we have managed to lose the ability to plan for/deter scenarios such as the given examples - and that if we don't address the problem we run the risk of being in a world of hurt sooner or later.

Comment #15 - Posted by: TAD at August 10, 2007 9:08 PM

Patience is a trait we lack. 100 yrs is not very long by Chinese standards.

Comment #16 - Posted by: Jason at August 10, 2007 9:08 PM

White men CAN jump.

Comment #17 - Posted by: Mike Scott at August 10, 2007 9:19 PM

42/6'1"/192

Just a thought on yesterday's posted picture: what an outstanding spot on the shoulder press! Firm yet somehow soft. Oh yeah, blew the ass out of my shorts today doing the the squat workout. Was up to 335 when that happened. Lost my momentum after that. Guess I better get some spandex. Might be making a come back now that Diamond Dave has reunited with VH. Rock on!

Comment #18 - Posted by: ken c at August 10, 2007 9:23 PM

The Jetson music was hilarious. I don't even know why. I guess because it's like he's in zero gravity! As for the deadlift pic, obvious errors are, by frame (left to right)
2nd: Bar straight under shoulders, rather than under scapulae
3rd: Rounded back/chest down/etc.
4th: Bar away from body

Comment #19 - Posted by: Arana at August 10, 2007 9:31 PM

#11

Do you mean socialism/communism when you say liberal?

When you say "no longer felt responsible," do you mean "to be" helpless?

If so, then I think one example includes what Lenin and Stalin did in Russia. Czarist Russia by no means was a democratic republic. But check out what the socialists-communists did when they had power.

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn's book The Gulag Archipelago is a start. Unchecked evil.

Comment #20 - Posted by: steve from OK at August 10, 2007 9:42 PM

I found this article interesting in comparison to the one posted

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/070307D.shtml

quote-Europeans consistently regard the US as the biggest threat to world stability
Perceived greatest threat to global securityA survey carried out in June by Harris Research for the Financial Times shows that 32 per cent of respondents in five European countries regard the US as a bigger threat than any other state.

In the US itself, North Korea and Iran are seen as the biggest risks. However, the youngest US respondents share the Europeans' view that theirs is the biggest threat, with 35 per cent of American 16- to 24-year-olds identifying it as the chief danger to stability.

European poll respondents - who also come from France, Germany, Italy and the UK - are increasingly concerned about China, which 19 per cent perceive as the biggest threat, up from 12 per cent last July
-end quote

This is also an interesting book on the subject more in line with the article posted:

China: The Gathering Threat
by Constantine C. Menges

http://www.amazon.com/China-Gathering-Constantine-C-Menges/dp/1595550054/ref=pd_sim_b_5/104-8974587-4011948

Comment #21 - Posted by: Avery at August 10, 2007 10:02 PM

mark helprin's novel "a soldier in the great war" is one of my top 3 ever. highly recommended. i'm not well informed enough on the subject to opine but he has some more of his op-eds posted on his website i think - if nothing else he's an independent thinker like few others. and a big believer in wielding a large stick of defense.

Comment #22 - Posted by: stuart at August 10, 2007 10:08 PM

Just wanted to add a few pieces excerpted from the book

Blowback
The Costs and Consequences of American Empire
by Chalmers Johnson

p139

The friendly relations the United States enjoyed with China during the last eighteen years of the Cold War era, following the historic Nixon-Kissinger realignment, were based on a common opposition to the USSR. The collapse of the Soviet Union therefore ended China's main usefulness to the United States as an ally, while enhancing its new status as a possible long-term rival to American hegemony. In the wake of the Cold War, with the Pentagon intent on maintaining near Cold War levels of military spending, enemies on the global horizon were much needed. With the Soviet army increasingly seen as a disintegrating paper tiger, China's economic emergence as a major power in the Pacific offered one possible fit with the Pentagon's need for a major enemy.


p141

U.S. policy toward China, whatever the disagreements about it' within the government, is driven by a familiar global agenda aimed at preserving and enhancing a Washington-centered world based on our being the lone superpower. Whether it is called globalization, the Washington consensus,soft power, or the indispensable nation, it still comes down to an urge to hold on to an American-inspired, -financed, and -led world order. Whereas such hegemonism vis-a vis Germany, Japan, Latin America, Russia, or the United Nations is only likely to result in imperial overstretch and the probable long-term decline of the United States, attempts to establish American hegemony over China hold out more explosive futures and are in any case doomed to failure.

p155

The real economic model for mainland China, although never mentioned for all the obvious reasons, is undoubtedly neither Japan nor South Korea but Taiwan, where the state and the ruling Nationalist Party own outright or directly control about 50 percent of all corporate assets and account for close to 30 percent of Taiwan's, gross national product. Numerous and successful state-owned enterprises are the single most striking feature of Taiwan's economic landscape.

Comment #23 - Posted by: Avery at August 10, 2007 10:26 PM

Clarification of terms that are tossed around frequently on rest day discussions.

Traditionally,

Liberal= political philosophy of limited government reflecting freedom of choice both personal and economic. The government that governs best governs least, blah blah blah.See Locke, Rousseau, Hobbes, Montesquieu, Jefferson et al.

Conservative= politial philosophy reflecting limits on choice enforced by all powerful government ie, Autocracy, Monarchy, Divine right of kings, Dictator

Today

Republican / our conservative party reflects the classically liberal philosophy of limited gov. when it comes to your economic choices and limits through gov control on personal freedoms.

Democrat/ our liberal party reflects the classically liberal philosophy of limited gov. when it comes to your personal choices (except guns)and limits through gov control of economic choices.

Both are both classically liberal and conservative.

The closest thing we have to a classic liberal would be the Libertarian party.

Communism, Socialism, Capitalism= economic philosophies not political philosophies and are and have historically been associated with both conservative and liberal governments. Dictatorial gov have forced communism on countries (USSR) and leaders with varying degrees of socialist economic views have been freely elected in liberal democracies (most of western Europe, the US, Venezuela etc).

Communism= gov controlling all the means of production, land, labor, capital with no or very little free enterprise.

Socialism= gov control of most of means of production, land, labor, capital with varying degrees of private ownership/enterprise

Capitalism= gov control of little of the means of production with primarily private ownership/enterprise.

All modern and successul economies fall somewhere on the spectrum between Communism and unregulated free market capitalism because the extreme forms of both have failed. Even China is promoting large pockets of free enterprise. Conversely the US heavily subsidises the airline, RR, military industrial complex, subjects industry to regulations of varying degrees and funds Socialist programs like, Social Security, unemployment benefits, welfare, public education.

As far as China starting a nuclear war... not gonna happen until they no longer need the US or Europe as trading partners. Follow the money baby!

Sorry for rambling.

Comment #24 - Posted by: JP at August 10, 2007 10:40 PM

Chris-
Yes the EMP attack is quite possible and varifiable. I don't know a site or anything but one of the first things learned about the nuclear bomb is that it knocks out all electronics within the area.

Also I don't think that reducing the number of warheads itself is a sign of weakness, it is more the people controlling the decision that shows everyone else weakness. Like Avery said most Europeans see us as the greatest threat. If they think that we are weak enough they may decide to back China in an attack of any kind on us. It is not likely but it is not impossible. What is worse is we seem to be making far more enemies than friends, none of which are scared of what we might do if they attack anymore.

Comment #25 - Posted by: Mjolnir at August 10, 2007 10:40 PM

#11 russia or pretty much any communist system for that matter.

Comment #26 - Posted by: Auto at August 10, 2007 11:24 PM

Step back a moment and consider how absurd our conflicts with Chinese are, past and potential. Halperin notes the Chinese fought us to a draw in Korea (and even that's being a little generous to us) and loomed as a threat in Vietnam. Now there's a latent but potential threat of conflict over Taiwan. Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan. Notice anything odd?

All three are on China's borders, half a world away from us. What on earth are we doing there? Even if it is with good intentions, we try to impose our will on cultures we don't understand, in places irrelevant to our lives.

Yes, if we don't stop, we are likely to face existential threats. But the answer isn't to re-arm ourselves to the teeth. It's to stop.

Because it simply is not in our self-interest to continue on this path of global dominance. Think of the good the treasure we waste abroad could do here (did you hear they pulled more bodies out of the Mississippi today?).

The biggest threat we face is from ourselves.

Comment #27 - Posted by: lawprof at August 10, 2007 11:26 PM

Rest Day Workout:
CrossFit Move

Dead Lift Dressers x 3
Clean and Jerk Mattreses x 2
Snatch Couch x 1

Post Time and Loads

Comment #28 - Posted by: CrossFit Salad at August 10, 2007 11:54 PM

As a man who has spent the past 2 years in fervent pursuit of hops, I can tell you right now that those are some beasty hops.

Comment #29 - Posted by: Joe at August 11, 2007 12:56 AM

#26 You're gross

Comment #30 - Posted by: A2 at August 11, 2007 1:49 AM

What can anybody say about CCTJoey that hasn't been said on some truck stop bathroom wall in Texas? A man conceived in Amarillo requires no explanation for his words. I haven't been that disgusted since I paid 80 Bhat in Thailand for the "dirty" massage.

Politics and foreign policy are the most disgusting of activities, more so than anything I have seen in Thailand or any other part of the world. Far below the Warrior and not worthy of discussion amongst the Warrior Elite class of society. Leads to conspiracy theories and invites pre-conceived emotion into judgment. Not desirable. Enforcing foreign policy. That is the path to honor.

10 more weeks and I get to ruin what's left of my life. Has anyone seen my dignity??

Comment #31 - Posted by: Crossfit Tikrit at August 11, 2007 3:16 AM

AFT = amazing athlete

Comment #32 - Posted by: JeffT at August 11, 2007 3:20 AM

I just wanted to say that the Navy Seals making CrossFit their principle regimen for fitness is awesome. I was just checking out the website and wanted to comment. Has any affiliate ever approached a police troop or fire department and introduced them to CrossFit? I am a new affiliate in PA and was thinking about doing it.
Thanks!

Comment #33 - Posted by: barry weidner at August 11, 2007 3:22 AM

Arana:
"As for the deadlift pic, obvious errors are, by frame (left to right)
2nd: Bar straight under shoulders, rather than under scapulae
3rd: Rounded back/chest down/etc.
4th: Bar away from body"

OK, I'm relatively new to this, so I had to look at that 2nd pic for a minute before I figured out what's wrong. The bar being out under the shoulders looks, to me, to merely be symptomatic of starting the lift by extending at the hips (i.e., lifting with the back) rather than starting by extending at the knees (i.e., lifting with the legs). Am I missing something, or did I get that right?

Comment #34 - Posted by: PatrickH at August 11, 2007 4:16 AM

That was some nice jumping. Lookup Spud Webb at Height: 5' 7" and watch him dunk.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TpPgpl3hjc

Comment #35 - Posted by: toprank at August 11, 2007 4:49 AM

CrossFit Tikrit (Nate): Stay strong my brother, you are almost home. Keep those men away from the sheep. They could be "What's for Dinner"

Comment #36 - Posted by: CCTJOEY at August 11, 2007 5:18 AM

Way to represent us short guys AFT!! :D

Comment #37 - Posted by: Anthony Bainbridge & Jodi Arbeau at August 11, 2007 5:25 AM

Brandon #11, the poor in New Orleans, Detroit, and DC or any major American City accept they are the opposite. They have been robbed of their sense of responsibility, so they have given up their liberty to keep it that way. Just keep sending the checks.

Socialist Democracies in Europe, where the people have grown more lax and unproductive, requesting more and more be given to and insured by the central government. "Just keep me from having to work more than 30 hours a week, but pay me like I worked 50"

Communist regimes of all types through out the world, past and present. Claim you are doing it for the people, then take away all wealth created and start slaughtering those who would question your methods.

The common theme is to allow (willingly or through coercion) someone else to take on your responsibilities to yourself and your families in return for less freedom of movement, free trade, and freedom of decisions and the consequences thereof.

Remember if the power claims to be "For the People", generally speaking the more the people get the screw.

Comment #38 - Posted by: CCTJOEY at August 11, 2007 5:32 AM

EMP. Reminds me of how cool my cell phone is until my son dunked it in the dogs' water bucket. Now it makes a great paper weight.

Comment #39 - Posted by: CCTJOEY at August 11, 2007 6:07 AM

Ninjas, EMP's, an individual willing relinquishment of personal liberty?!!?
jeez guys, I need to remember to down that coffee or hit some burpies before reading the rest day posts...

hey you guys don't think that those EMPs take out x- boxs? oh well, just keep sending those checks!

Comment #40 - Posted by: jerradob at August 11, 2007 7:07 AM

Ninjas, EMP's, an individual willing relinquishment of personal liberty?!!?
jeez guys, I need to remember to down that coffee or hit some burpies before reading the rest day posts...

hey you guys don't think that those EMPs take out x- boxs? oh well, just keep sending those checks!

Comment #41 - Posted by: jerradob at August 11, 2007 7:08 AM

Mark Helprin has great ideas, but he either isn't aware of the safeguards the military already has in place for such events, or he just doesn't want to put it in the article. Plus the fact an EMP in the mesosphere would have to get to the mesosphere above us. Yes thats the other side of the world. When they launch, guaranteed they'd have very their very loud and destructive answer in less then 30 minutes. We'd both hit each other, start a WW, and then why would we be worrying about an EMP? While great thinking, practicality is lacking for such an event. I'm more worried about a suitcase nuke in downtown NYC or LA from an Islamic Jihadist group then an EMP over my head any time soon.

I live 2 miles from a giant missile tracking radar (PAVE PAWS). Satellites constantly look not only over our county but other countries for launch confirmations. Yes, yes, yes, we'd know.

I also agree with the monetary debate, China gets way too much money from us. Start a war that funding gets cut hard, plus they lose a huge trade partner.

Read: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/18902.htm

"Total two-way trade between China and the U.S. grew from $33 billion in 1992 to over $347 trillion in 2006...U.S. exports to China have been growing more rapidly than to any other market (up 20% in 2004, 20% in 2005, and 32% in 2006)."

By blowing each other up, what are they going to do? Lose money. His article and fears seem a bit far fetched. Or maybe I just have the wool over my eyes as a Recce driver.

Comment #42 - Posted by: Angry G at August 11, 2007 7:20 AM

When did this turn into a political forum about war and Domestic/Foreign policy? When did people all of a sudden start pretending to care about what's going on with international relations? Funny how most of the people who have the strongest opinions and views on paper, internet, and phone are the people who do the least about it. Why not get off your computer and ask an Armed Forces Recruiter what you can do about it? Why not call your Senator and ask how you can get involved? But by all means, please don't get off your computer and vent your suppressed anger in a Crossfit chatroom. Believe it or not, there is a Commander-in-Chief who, not only is extremely qualified for the job, but he also worked his way to the top. Most people have enough trouble trying to figure out what's best to eat for breakfast in the morning....maybe we should let him decide what's best for the country.

Comment #43 - Posted by: Gary at August 11, 2007 8:04 AM

Today's Training: Beach Session. Tynemouth UK

Warm Up 4x 75m runs continuous interspersed with 10x Push Ups/Squats/Sit Ups at the end of each length.

1. Deadlift 145lbs x 10
Shot Putt and Chase 100m
Kettle Bell Swings 1 pood x 15
Shot Putt and Chase 100m Twice Thru

2. 15 Keg Press
50 m keg carry
15 Keg Press
50 m Keg carry Twice thru

3. HGV Tyre Tows x 50m
Tractor Tyre Flips x 10 with Tuck Jump in and out after each flip.
Twice thru

4. Water Butt Carry 50 m
15 Kettlebell Swings
Water Butt Carry 50 m
30 Sledgehammer Hits. (from Overhead)
50m Sprint carrying Hammer
10 Burpees
50 m Sprint return Once thru

5 Circuit Finisher:
20 walking lunges holding KB overhead
145lb Deadlifts
Push Ups with feet raised on tyre
Sledgehammer hits.
Change station off the time taken for each athlete to complete lunges.

Todays Contenders:
Ben: I always think I can do better and improve no matter what the session is.

Simon: Not a bad day today, technique much better esp on Burpees. Helps when you're not hungover mate!

Chris: First time out- bags of effort, pushed through stuff that was hard. Nice Work.

Kev: Worked very hard, lightest here so pro rata a higher percentage of bodyweight on each ex. Did well, great tenacity on the tyre tows.

Kempie: Away w Crossfit Manchester, so can be excused!

Sat 18th August next sesh. Tynemouth Long Sands. England UK. Check www.crossfitnortheastengland for further details.

'Pain is temporary'

Comment #44 - Posted by: firemanben at August 11, 2007 8:27 AM

Faced with victory, or with loss, they might choose to -- and who would venture to guarantee that they would not? -- detonate half a dozen high-megatonnage nuclear charges in the mesosphere, in an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) strike perhaps not even in American airspace, cooking almost every circuit and semiconductor, rendering the American government blind, deaf and dumber than it is already and the country unable to resist the inroads that would surely follow.

Worse yet, they might summon their zombie army from outer space and airlift it to Toledo, OH.

This article is hysterical.

Comment #45 - Posted by: Joshua Holmes at August 11, 2007 9:05 AM

Gary (#42):

Most of us who post from military perspectives are in the military. And PLENTY of us are doing something about it. I prefer broad generalized fitness, but I don't like when someone accuses a broad generalized amount of people of doing nothing.

Please do not forget, all people in the military take an oath to defend the Constitution, it says nothing of the POTUS. He also gives an enormous amount of leverage and command to his field commanders so that they can make informed decisions about what is going on in their AOR. This debate has gone on over and over and history, and the U.S. Military figured it out, their battlefield commanders need the ability to carry out their mission on their terms, not constantly having to ask higher HQ for permission.

The Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ) 809.ART.90 (20), makes it clear that military personnel need to obey the "lawful command of his superior officer," 891.ART.91 (2), the "lawful order of a warrant officer", 892.ART.92 (1) the "lawful general order", 892.ART.92 (2) "lawful order". In each case, military personnel have an obligation and a duty to only obey Lawful orders and indeed have an obligation to disobey Unlawful orders, including orders by the president that do not comply with the UCMJ. The moral and legal obligation is to the U.S. Constitution and not to those who would issue unlawful orders, especially if those orders are in direct violation of the Constitution and the UCMJ.

- USAF Captain "Angry G"

Comment #46 - Posted by: Angry G at August 11, 2007 9:10 AM

"Rest" day...hmm. Well, I know 3+ hours of swing dancing doesn't count as a CrossFit workout, but it is a fun way to be active...what was amusing for me was the number of "Wow, your arms are strong" comments I got from guys I was dancing with. I'll take THAT as a compliment so THANKS once again CrossFit!

Comment #47 - Posted by: Janell at August 11, 2007 9:28 AM

Chris 7

"I cannot see how reducing our tactical nuclear weapons from 10,000 to 1,800 is a sign of weakness. 1,800 is still enough to destroy the entire world a few dozen times over. I don't see how that can embolden the Chinese."

The Chinese dont need any help to emboldened, they are motivated, focused and ruthless. for the record, 1800 warheads isnt really enough to destroy the whole world, but its probably enough to destroy every population center on a continent, provided the warheads are large enough.

"If, in 1987, our weapons cache was a 500:1 ratio, isn't it more likely that's what made them determined to catch up to us? Nuclear weapons just seem like a pissing match beyond a certain point. Nothing more."

Read above, China already has their goal, and are likely to be encouraged more by weakness than strength.

"Can anyone here back up the science behind an EMP bomb taking out every communications system in the country? Seems like the writer should site the scientific source for that claim."

One, no. Enough strategically placed, could fry 70-80%

"If it's true, it is alarming. But the writer also sites the very unlikely possibilty that China would start a world war over Taiwan. Aside from a new regime with an extreme ideology, it could never be worth their while."

This is untrue. In the long term, China would rather turn Taiwan into a slagheap than renounce their claim to it. the taiwanese in return are understandably very nervouse.

Comment #48 - Posted by: Duane at August 11, 2007 9:31 AM

lawprof #27

"Step back a moment and consider how absurd our conflicts with Chinese are, past and potential. Halperin notes the Chinese fought us to a draw in Korea (and even that's being a little generous to us) and loomed as a threat in Vietnam. Now there's a latent but potential threat of conflict over Taiwan. Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan. Notice anything odd?

All three are on China's borders, half a world away from us. What on earth are we doing there? Even if it is with good intentions, we try to impose our will on cultures we don't understand, in places irrelevant to our lives."

agreed.

"Yes, if we don't stop, we are likely to face existential threats. But the answer isn't to re-arm ourselves to the teeth. It's to stop."

I would disagree on the point that we should always be armed to the teeth, to deter agression, but limit the employment of that armament to the defense of our soveriegn territory and trade routes.

"Because it simply is not in our self-interest to continue on this path of global dominance. Think of the good the treasure we waste abroad could do here (did you hear they pulled more bodies out of the Mississippi today?).

The biggest threat we face is from ourselves."

Agreed.

Where do you lecture?


Comment #49 - Posted by: Duane at August 11, 2007 9:39 AM

"When did this turn into a political forum about war and Domestic/Foreign policy?"

When coach started posting political info on rest day, I would gather.

"When did people all of a sudden start pretending to care about what's going on with international relations?"

I have always cared about it, and so have many others.

"Funny how most of the people who have the strongest opinions and views on paper, internet, and phone are the people who do the least about it. Why not get off your computer and ask an Armed Forces Recruiter what you can do about it? Why not call your Senator and ask how you can get involved? But by all means, please don't get off your computer and vent your suppressed anger in a Crossfit chatroom."

If you think that joining the Armed forces is a way to effect foreign policy, Im not sure what you mean. Those in the armed forces are tools of foreign policy, not the drivers of it.

When was the last time you called your Senator, did he or she return your call?

"Believe it or not, there is a Commander-in-Chief who, not only is extremely qualified for the job, but he also worked his way to the top. Most people have enough trouble trying to figure out what's best to eat for breakfast in the morning....maybe we should let him decide what's best for the country."

If being born into privilege, not taking advantage of an Ivy league education, joining the National Guard during a time of war to avoid the draft, and getting flight training on a special privilege, and then leaving the guard early to work on a political campaign, running a business into the ground, and then using family ties to get into politics makes you an extremely well qualified 'commander in chief', then why dont we just go back to the civil war practice of making officers out of anyone who happens to be in the upper classes?

Comment #50 - Posted by: Duane at August 11, 2007 9:49 AM

WOW... nice gams Annie!

Comment #51 - Posted by: maddy at August 11, 2007 10:08 AM

RE: Comment #42 by Gary

The act of discussion/debate is a critical element in a free and democratic society. While certain posts in this comment section provide (in my opinion) more value than others, all are necessary.

There MUST be a constant questioning by the people regarding the government's action/inaction. This ensures that the government remains accountable (see: fear of) to it's people and not the other way around.

Comment #52 - Posted by: John at August 11, 2007 10:19 AM

Re: Comment #49

Well said Duane. I should have just posted "Yeah, what Duane said."

Comment #53 - Posted by: John at August 11, 2007 10:23 AM

China's ability to acquire capital and spur innovation is still tiny compared to the U.S. Most scaremongers, defeatists, and apologists ignore this and focus on perceived bad news. I don't even see any bad news. Yes, China is growing. That is mostly good news. America is growing too. That is also good. Prosperous countries always tend towards pluralism.

As regards the general opinion of the U.S.: people around the world value American goods and services and recognize our basic goodness. They respect the United States, but it is fashionable to decry it much as it is to gossip about close friends. If we were a nobody on the world stage, we would merely be ignored. Given a moment to get to know an American student studying abroad, they typically make friends and will in my experience admit that they secretly like the U.S. I can only hope that the leftward half of Americans would be as generous.

Comment #54 - Posted by: Andrew H. Meador at August 11, 2007 10:27 AM

28M/5'6"/165#

5.02 mile run - 42:48

Comment #55 - Posted by: Travis from Reno at August 11, 2007 10:32 AM

#53 Duane. Bush was actually fairly successful as a businessman, and grew up around politics. He is informal and never seemed to care about grades, but did well enough to get through some great schools and in case you didn't know has a post-graduate degree in business.

Moving on to foreign affairs, Duane, if your father were a decorated war hero and once the Director of Central Intelligence, I'd wager that you'd catch quite a lot of good info at the dinner table. Then, as the son of a Vice President and a politically cognizant and sharply intelligent mother, I'd think that you'd learn more than a little bit about the political process, domestic affairs, and foreign policy. This process would surely continue when your father became president and commanded the war against the very country that you would later fight yourself.

Oh, and as Governor of one of the largest states in the Union, and as only the second Republican governor in a very long time, I'd think you'd have quite a bit of experience in running government as an executive.

Comment #56 - Posted by: Andrew H. Meador at August 11, 2007 10:39 AM

#42 Gary

"Believe it or not, there is a Commander-in-Chief who, not only is extremely qualified for the job, but he also worked his way to the top."

Our CIC has well demonstrated his lack of knowledge of world geography, disinterest international political history, a willingness to appoint unqualified pulic servants, unwilligness to fire failed public servants and general disiterest in weeding out graft and corruption in the industrial military complex which has short changed all of us especially those in uniform.

With the challenges we curretly face as a nation, these are dangerous shortcomings.

Now what were those qualifications?

Comment #57 - Posted by: red at August 11, 2007 10:45 AM

#7 Chris:

The truth of the matter is that most of a nation's nuclear arsenal is aimed at the nuclear arsenal of its enemies. Our base locations are largely known and therefore are targeted by Chinese missiles. I don't think China would do it, but reducing the nuclear arsenal gives China the false hope that it can dominate the U.S. by destroying the majority of its nuclear arsenal, and therefore China will be MORE willing to build new weapons. Counterintuitive though it may seem, it actually makes sense when you consider the matter in its entirety, from every angle, with all of its specific and general consequences in the near- and long-term.

Comment #58 - Posted by: Andrew H Meador at August 11, 2007 10:59 AM

China has no incentive to nuke the U.S., all they need to do should they wish to hurt us is to liquidate the $820 billion plus(2005) of government debt and the house of cards will start to fall. It's hard to maintain superpower status through debt. Eventually, the bill will come due. (ask the Brits)
Less funds for new tools for goofs like cctjoey to pretend they're, 'protecting my freedoms' and more fiscal sanity would go a long way toward creating true national security. After all, it's hard to be secure when someone else owns your butt.

Comment #59 - Posted by: SMASH at August 11, 2007 11:05 AM

57

On the issue of china and their vast reserve of dollars they are holding, its a trillion now, they actually made the threat to do just that recently.

A dump of even a half trillion dollars on the currency market would seriously hinder the U.S. Economy, but since China relies on us to buy their contaminated and crappy products, Im unsure they would do that in such a way. It does make an excellent threat tho.

Smash, you are right in that we overspend on defense by a huge margin, and that alone can explain our ginormous debt load, its hardly the fault of any single military member, that he takes advantage of the opportunities provided to him. Of course that doesnt excuse having a bad attitude about it, but thats another topic.

Comment #60 - Posted by: Duane at August 11, 2007 11:15 AM

#16, Jason,

"Patience is a trait we lack. 100 yrs is not very long by Chinese standards."

We've been patiently working with the same constitution for 220 years. What other country can make a similar claim?

Comment #61 - Posted by: Hari at August 11, 2007 11:52 AM

i'm in love with annie. what a lady, with such beautiful form! she makes me love deadlifting.

Comment #62 - Posted by: kg at August 11, 2007 12:20 PM

re # 59 -

switzerland has been working with its confederate constitution since the 1291, with a break between 1798 and 1893 for napoleon and ensuing civil unrest. the united states is young for a nation, both culturally and politically, and our relative adolescence is one of our biggest hurdles.

Comment #63 - Posted by: kg at August 11, 2007 12:28 PM

I'm trying to figure out who we are a threat to. Do the Europeans think we are going to invade Europe? We could take them pretty easily, I would wager. Are we doing to invade China?

Are they going to get mad at us if we buy into their criterion that only strategically unimportant wars are worth waging and start putting major troops on the ground anytime tribal peoples in Africa start acting like tribal peoples?

Who are we a threat to, besides nations that have already declared themselves our enemies?

As I see it, there was a general point in the article, and a specific point. The general point is that it has become increasingly difficult to have adult discussions about what is needed to protect our nation about emerging threats.

This is because there are invariably two "sales" that have to made. The first is on the need for defense. This point is important, as it is a clear symptom of political and cultural decadence.

Only secondarily do we need to say, for example, that an EMP pulse is a significant potential threat. One poster said--we see the lights, we fire back, boom on both sides, bad idea--but what if the Chinese do their launch, then call Pres. Clinton on the phone, and tell her they have initiated a proactive EMP strike because they have reliable intelligence that our subs were positioned to do the same. They take this story international, immediately. Clinton can't make up her mind. Decadence is defeated by determination.

This is an extreme example, but the fact of the matter is that power and capacity mean absolutely nothing without the will to use it. I do not think it is overstating the case to say that 9/1l happened because we tolerated the Iranian hostage crisis.

The most powerful military in the world ignored an act of war (which legally is what taking over an embassy is), without even the threat of a Soviet or Chinese military threat in the background. We negotiated, because it was politically easier, and in the process convinced the Arab world we were nothing but a bunch of pansies.

Our national dialogue has decayed to almost pure mediocrity. We cannot rationally discuss our self interests if we cannot even decide we should pursue our self interest. When we have people who want us to apologize for existing, and presumably liquidate our national assets, and accustom ourselves to the standard of living of, say, Mali.

The implicit argument there is that, absent the United States, all would be hunky dory. Yet who would fill that power vacuum? Not the Europeans. They sold their birthright for a cup of soup a long time ago. It would be the Russians and the Chinese, and last I checked neither one of them had human rights records within even an order of magnitude of ours. We are not perfect. That does not make other nations much, much worse, and the historical fact of the matter is that we have acted as a stabilizing force in the global community virtually since our founding, and continue to do so.

Those who make these unsupportable arguments about our alleged wrong-doings do so out of spite, jealousy, and in many cases carefully planned programs of moral subversion.

Do we need to protect against EMP's? I don't know. But I do know that we need to guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence by foreign interests, acting through willing or unwitting proxies.

-

Comment #64 - Posted by: Barry Cooper at August 11, 2007 12:31 PM

Won't be able to get to the gym tomorrow, thus:

20 OHS @ 95#
20 Situps
20 HPC @ 95#
20 KTE
20 PP @ 95#
20 Situps
20 Front Squats @ 95#
20 KTE
100 Dumbbells swings @ 50#

No time.

Comment #65 - Posted by: rcurriejr at August 11, 2007 12:40 PM

Day behind. Shoulder work from ystd.
Thanks, Coach.

Comment #66 - Posted by: bingo at August 11, 2007 12:55 PM

Duane, what is your take on Ron Paul?

Comment #67 - Posted by: CCTJOEY at August 11, 2007 1:19 PM

Not a rest day at Brand X.

Painstorm XXVIII
Brought to you by Dan Colson of CrossFit Rockford.

800 M Run
50 Box jumps, 20"
10 Pull ups
40 Overhead squats
10 Pull ups
30 Thrusters 95#,65#
10 Pull ups
20 Handstand push ups
10 Pull ups
10 Muscle ups
10 Pullups
400 M Run
10 Pullups
10 Muscle ups
10 Pull ups
20 Handstand push ups
10 Pull ups
30 Thrusters 95#,65#
10 Pull ups
40 Overhead squats
10 Pull ups
50 Box jumps, 20#
800 M Run


This sucked. I did to the halfway point and subbed the ending 800m for the 400M in the middle. 41:39

Comment #68 - Posted by: laurar at August 11, 2007 1:45 PM

nice hops AFT!

28/f/110#

made up yesterdays WOD

SP: 65-75-80-85-90(F)-85
PP: 75-75-80-80-85
PJ: 65-70-75-80-85

pre: 4 mile interval run on TM
post: shoulder press: 65x5, 55x5, 55x5, 55x5

shoulders are fried!

Comment #69 - Posted by: nadia shatila at August 11, 2007 2:20 PM

Neil(50) & Ellie(52)

Neil

Shoulder press X 1 X 60kgs/70kgs/75kgsF/75kgsF/70kgs

Push press X 3 x 75kgs/80kgs/85kgs/85kgsF/85kgsF

Push press jerk X 5 X 65kgs/65kgs/75kgs/75kgs/75kgs

Ellie

Shoulder press X 1 X 25kgs/27.5kgs/30kgs/32.5kgsF/30kgs

Push press X 3 X 30kgs X 5 sets (technique practice)

Push press jerk X 5 x 25kgs X 5 sets (technique practice)

Have a good one.

Neilfit

Comment #70 - Posted by: neilfit at August 11, 2007 2:36 PM

#42 Gary


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. The strongest opinions on this page belong to the military members. Welcome to rest days, newbie- step your game up.

CCT Joey, Duane, AngryG, et al- nice work today. You guys are officially honorary Ninjas.

Comment #71 - Posted by: Aaron at August 11, 2007 2:38 PM

#57, Smash, #58, Duane,

"China has no incentive to nuke the U.S., all they need to do should they wish to hurt us is to liquidate the $820 billion plus(2005) of government debt and the house of cards will start to fall. It's hard to maintain superpower status through debt." (Smash)

"A dump of even a half trillion dollars on the currency market would seriously hinder the U.S. Economy, but since China relies on us to buy their contaminated and crappy products, Im unsure they would do that in such a way. It does make an excellent threat tho." (Duane)

Suppose, China decide to liquidate its entire holdings of US T-Bills, let's estimate that's one trillion dollars. For the sake of argument, let's say that these are all 10-year notes, paying an average of 4.5% interest. What would happen?

First, every single bond that the Chinese sell would have to be bought by someone else. Since no one is clamoring to buy $1 trillion in T-bills, those notes would need to be sold at a significant discount.

China would take a major hit, not unlike Bill Gates would, were he to dump all his Microsoft shares--and unlike Gates, China bought its assets at full price, so it would be a real loss, not a paper loss.

The bonds would trade below par(face value), pushing up the effective yield. How much would the yield go up? In the short-run, maybe one half of one percent, maybe a bit more. But, once that happened, T-bills would become more attractive to investors, and an equilibrium would be reached, at I estimate, one-quarter of one percent above the current level. Not good, but not the end of the world.

The truth is that China holds US T-bills because it wants to (they are a good investment). No one is forcing them down their throats, any more than they are forcing us to buy their textiles.

Comment #72 - Posted by: Hari at August 11, 2007 2:43 PM

Hari,

Jason has a point, and interestingly it has to do with the 220 years of constitutional government you spoke of.

China, and Asian cultures in general, tend to be long viewed when thinking strategically. its what they do. Its why Japanese companies took the billions in US currency they earned and reinvested it in the US market. Its why the AON building in Chicago got bought at premium and then leased back to the owners on a 100 year lease.

Asian government decision makers and business tycoons are just on average more hive minded than we are, and make decisions that contemplate an effect decades or centuries down the road.

We dont usually think like that. American culture is about now, this week, this month, this quarterly profit report, this year.

Perhaps the reason we have a 220 year democratic tradition is because we focus on one day at a time.

Comment #73 - Posted by: Duane at August 11, 2007 2:56 PM

I know I like Chinese food so I hope we can work things out with them. Hey I learned to kip today! Could never quite get the hang of it until I saw some of James Fitzgerald's videos on youtube. Finally got it. Thanks OPT.

Comment #74 - Posted by: ken c at August 11, 2007 2:57 PM

65 CCTJoey

Im a strong supporter of Dr. Paul, though I dont stand with him on every single issue. I think he is the last great hope that the Republican party has to get back to a mission even resembling the priorities of the founding fathers.

Its kind of how I feel about the Libertarian Party, of which I used to be an officer in a major metro. Great theory, but lousy acknowledgement of the political realities involved in dealing with a mature democratic republic. If I could get Dr. Paul and libertarians to realize that big business unchecked can be as dangerous as big government unchecked, and get them to address the issues raised in public choice economic theory in terms of how small special interests tend to take over democratic institutions, to me, that would be near political perfection.

Plus, its really too bad that he looks and sounds like a weasel. He will never be elected president because only people who really care will vote for him. But if he can get the republicans to actually pay more than just lip service to old school fundamentals, I might start voting again.

How bout your take on him?

Comment #75 - Posted by: Duane at August 11, 2007 3:10 PM

Perhaps the reason we have a 220 year democratic tradition is because we focus on one day at a time.

--

Yeah, what this country needs is some forward-thinking authoritarianism!

Comment #76 - Posted by: Joshua Holmes at August 11, 2007 3:35 PM

Duane, his 9/11 truther leanings are a little special. I also don't like his isolationist, 'we should pull out of the Middle East mind set'. That side of the Libertarian party that plays down national defense is dangerous. I fall down between the Libertarian Right and the Conservative movement.

Dr. Paul also is suffering from 'They Love Me' syndrome currently. He thinks he is getting support from the college crowd, but actually they are leftists who want to see a Republican further and legitimate their loony causes.

Though he is an idealist and sticks to his guns, his need to be loved is showing his depth of character in my opinion.

I agree he is unelectable. He is interesting, however.

Comment #77 - Posted by: CCTJOEY at August 11, 2007 3:36 PM

Hari,

What you are saying, while correct, is somewhat simplistic, and doesnt take certain factors under consideration.

First of all, China is already losing money on those T-bills. The fed has doubled the money supply in the last 6 years. This is one of the reasons why we saw such a huge growth in cheap money, one of the effects of which was to raise housing prices, for example.

While dumping a trillion in T-bills on the market would no doubt lower the traded price and hence raise the effective payout in dollars, the dollar itself would become even less valuable than it already is.

So if you, as China, want to evaluate the impact of dumping the dollar, you have to take into account the discount rate you mentioned, the loss of real value that you mentioned, but also the impact to the US of lowering the value of the dollar relative to US currencies, and also measure the effect on the US T- bill market.

As you said, eventually everything evens out, but the biggest immediate concern is this.

What happens to US borrowing capacity when China puts a billion dollars in US t-bills on the market at 90 cents per dollar?

two things can happen, the US can quit borrowing money until the market eats up the surplus, effectively denying us the ability to make war... OR we can print more money, which has the effect of devaluing US currency even farther.

either way, something that harms China has the ability to hurt us even more.

China holds T-bills because it kinda has to. They are growing themselves from propping up our currency in this way, since we are their biggest customer, last time I checked. Once they make more inroads to europe, they are likely to slowly diversify their holdings.

Comment #78 - Posted by: Duane at August 11, 2007 4:27 PM

No one should ever - and I mean ever - quote anything from truthout.org. Better off asking my stoner cousin what he thinks. I believe it was senior editor/wingnut Jason Leopold who posted a story some time back that Karl Rove was hours away from arrest. Oopsee! Wishful thinking, I suppose.

... and somebody get Jason a soda. He's starting to freak me out with all that ninja talk.

We seem too interdependant economically with China for anything crazy to happen, shortterm anyway. Good to see that Hari and Duane, our resident economists, agree (I think). Me? No, I'm not an economist, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Comment #79 - Posted by: Rob at August 11, 2007 5:46 PM

AFT - wow! I'm lucky to have a 12" jump...

8 minute snatch set: 77L/80R. Hand switch at 4 minutes. Almost 20 rpm pace for eight minutes....but still no way I could do it for a full 10. This is about the limit of my current conditioning without tearing my hands or having grip problems.

Comment #80 - Posted by: Kelly Moore at August 11, 2007 6:18 PM

CCTJoey is the William Hung of Crossfit!

Comment #81 - Posted by: airdj at August 11, 2007 6:36 PM

She Bangs!!

Comment #82 - Posted by: CCTJOEY at August 11, 2007 6:39 PM

"Duane, his 9/11 truther leanings are a little special."

For the record, I dont think he has ever made any comment on 9/11 with regard to there being any kind of conspiracy. He is just well regarded by that crowd, and unfortunately, has become associated with them through their support of him. I assure you the support doesnt run both ways.

"I also don't like his isolationist, 'we should pull out of the Middle East mind set'. That side of the Libertarian party that plays down national defense is dangerous. I fall down between the Libertarian Right and the Conservative movement."

We should discuss the options on that at length sometime, perhaps when there is an article more on point as the main post. I agree that alot of Libertarian ideas when taken to an extreme, get really wacky, but not just on military issues.

I will disagree on us staying out of the middle east tho. Its a hole, always has been, always will be. Our money would be better spent figuring out how to maximize the efficiency of solar, nuclear, and wind power generation, as well as more efficient method for hydrogen conversion, so we can go back to seeing crude as raw material for plastics and fibers instead of energy.

I think you are going to have a hard time morally or economically justifying any position that supports large scale war as a tool for anything other than self defense or perhaps defense of trade routes, but we'll see.

For the record, I support the direct assasination of any foreign national, regardless of his status, that has effectively declared war on the U.S.. I like how Israel handled the Palestinians that attacked their Olympic team, but Id prefer it be a bit more civilized. Build a file, assign a pros and a def counsel, present the case to a special jury, and if its clear he is a terrorist, go smoke him. If you manage to catch him in the act, fine, kill him, or put him on trial and if he is guilty, kill him. No appeals. By the same token, I dont want goat herders in prison for 10 years on mere suspicion, either.

If a citizen does it, I say resort to the courts. The way Padilla has been treated is a travesty of justice.

Im especially amused by the idea espoused by some that military and police forces could be privatized. :)

"Dr. Paul also is suffering from 'They Love Me' syndrome currently. He thinks he is getting support from the college crowd, but actually they are leftists who want to see a Republican further and legitimate their loony causes."

ya know, I can see why you might think that, but I live a huge part of my life on the web. By far the VAST majority of his support is coming from younger tech saavy people who are fed up with the way things are going, and just arent interested in what the Reprocrats have to say. Granted, most of them are nerds, but they are more likely to go to the shooting range or play video games than attend ANSWER rallys.

"Though he is an idealist and sticks to his guns, his need to be loved is showing his depth of character in my opinion."

I think the guy is just dazzled that someone is paying attention to him for the first time in his political career.


Comment #83 - Posted by: Duane at August 11, 2007 6:41 PM

im new to cross fit, and i feel like on the rest days i should still do a workout. what do you veterans do?

Comment #84 - Posted by: NellisATC at August 11, 2007 7:01 PM

NellisATC (#82)
Rest.

Comment #85 - Posted by: TonyB at August 11, 2007 7:14 PM

NellisATC (82)

I agree with Tony. If you feel you need to workout, you may not be going all out the other 3 days.

Comment #86 - Posted by: CCTJOEY at August 11, 2007 7:18 PM

Made up the WOD from Thursday, minus push jerks because I ran out of time.

m/25/185

Press x1:
185, 195, 205, 215 (f), 210 (pr)

Push Press x3:
175, 185, 195, 205, 215 (pr) (probably should have started a little heavier, but I'd never gone so heavy w/ push press before.)

Very happy today.

Comment #87 - Posted by: Richie at August 11, 2007 8:11 PM

"I know I like Chinese food so I hope we can work things out with them."

Simple and elegant, and worth more than talking-head analysis. I think we just found our new diplomat to China.

Comment #88 - Posted by: Rob at August 11, 2007 8:50 PM

"Think of the good the treasure we waste abroad could do here (did you hear they pulled more bodies out of the Mississippi today?)."

Does this somehow imply that, without the war effort, bodies could have been recovered sooner? Is this also related to the canard that the war effort hampered Katrina response? Oh, when will this yammering end?

Comment #89 - Posted by: Rob at August 11, 2007 8:54 PM

#77, Duane,

"What happens to US borrowing capacity when China puts a billion dollars in US t-bills on the market at 90 cents per dollar?"

When that hapens, the US pays an extra quarter to one half percent on future borrowing, and other countries jump at the opportunity. We've paid far higher interest rates in the recent past. One half percent on next year's $400 billion in borrowing is $2 billion per year.

Comment #90 - Posted by: Hari at August 11, 2007 8:55 PM

seriously, can EMPs ruin x-box 360s?

Comment #91 - Posted by: jerradob at August 11, 2007 9:18 PM

Hari,

I think that it is optimistic, and makes the assumption that the Chinese dont open up the floodgates and do a fire sale, but I see your point.

Your assumption also relies on confidence in the dollar remaining strong, AND the fed keeping the money supply constant relative to demand, which it has not done in the past, and I dont see it happening in the future.

Comment #92 - Posted by: Duane at August 11, 2007 11:14 PM

#90, Duane,

"I think that it is optimistic, and makes the assumption that the Chinese dont open up the floodgates and do a fire sale, but I see your point."

A fire sale, just means that the hedge funds make a killing. Really, it just couldn't get better than China dumping discounted US Treasuries. (Wall Street's biggest problem would be the Fed cutting in on this once in a lifetime opportunity.)

If an orderly sale on China's part would raise interest rates, say, one quarter of one percent, and a fire sale would spike rates by one percent, there is a wonderful arbitrage opportunity. The funds buy the bonds for, say, 80 cents on the dollar, to meet China's irrational need to spite itself. Then the funds slowly sell the bonds back into the market at 95 cents on the dollar (the price China could have gotten in the first place, had it been willing to liquidate in a manner that would have allowed it to minimize its losses).

Comment #93 - Posted by: Hari at August 12, 2007 5:26 AM

#90 Hari,

I have to admit, after doing a bit of digging, that you are probably right.

First I thought about how big a chunk 1T is compared to our our GDP, as my sense is that even wall street might have a hard time absorbing that much surplus.

But after comparing US GDP to China GDP 13T to 2T, its clear that any dumping by China would be far more harmful to them than to us.

Still, its pretty freaking alarming that we maintain a national debt which is effectively 9/13 of our gross domestic product, largely foreign held, while nations like China have 1/2 of their GDP in currency reserves.

Comment #94 - Posted by: Duane at August 12, 2007 6:22 AM

Moving beyond the question of how China might get out of US Treasuries (whether in whole or in part, quickly or slowly) let's look at what happens next. What does China get in exchange for its hundreds of billions of dollars worth of US debt? It get US dollars, not Euros, not Renmenbi (its currency.) It gets stacks and stacks of US dollars. Then what does it do?

Its options are: (1) Watch the dollars collect dust, rather than the interest they used to collect. (2) Buy US exports. (3) Convert to another currency. If China chooses option (3), then hundreds of billions of dollars head to, say, Europe in exchange for Euros. The Europeans then face the same three choices.

China, of course, then decides that this was difficult and expensive. No longer wishing to rid itself of US dollars on a regular basis, it stops exporting to the US.

Then what? We don't get cheap socks, and they don't get our dollars. In fact, virtually nobody gets China's cheap socks. There are no Walmarts in Paris.

Comment #95 - Posted by: Hari at August 12, 2007 6:37 AM

Couple things. First, I would like to argue again that the current use of the political spectrum is in fact an abuse. If you place Fascism and Monarchism to the right of Republicanism, it makes it much too easy to equat Republicanism with autocracy, when in fact it has historically been the case that the Democrats have placed far more restrictions on our liberty than the Republicans have, in the form of taxes (the proximate cause of our Revolution), coercive laws such as Affirmative Action, and through the nomination of judicially active judges to the Supreme (and other) courts.

I have already mentioned that the left/right distinction was made at the French National Assembly, and consisted entirely of people working to create a "Republic". The leftists basically wanted to use force to get their way--literal, judicial, and legislative--and the Conservatives wanted essentially to put brakes on the insanity, breathe, and consolidate the gains that had been made.

They were shouted down, and in many cases killed, and eventually they did revert to autocracy.

Since they were arguing for nothing other than rational discussion, and actual rule of law and order, in a condition of chaos, they were conservative, relative to the nutjobs. First and foremost, they argued, let's not lose what we already have.

They were, it should be added, technically on the "Right Wing" (the Assembly had named areas associated with positions; there was "The Plain", for example, and the Montagnards, "The Mountain People"). In my understanding the word Conservative originated with Edmund Burke--who, by the way, was a vocal advocate of American Independence from Britain).

However, in this regard, it seems to me that nothing is gained by utilizing terms which lose their formal validity in the extreme range on both sides. A continuum that loops back on itself is poorly constructed, and clearly Fascism and Communism are structurally similar, consisting of aggressive empire building, associated theft, civil rights elimination, and autocratic government. They differ only in that Communism wants to take over the world for the "Workers", and Fascism wants to do so for their own parochial, nationalistic interests. Practically, for anyone they conquer, the effects have historically been the same.

Therefore, I would like again to propose that effective liberty--economic, political, religious--be the criterion we use. Given this, radical libertarians, who would eliminate all taxes, most government, and even non-local military units, should be on the extreme Right. Republicans, of course, favor some taxation, a strong military/national defense (which I think everyone can agree is most efficacious at foreign wars when centrally controlled), and public works projects that favor the common good, like bridges and highways.

Farther along, we have people who want to use the power of government to redistribute wealth. There is of course a continuum here, from Welfare programs and associated national tax increases, all the way to what the Nazis and Communists did, which was essentially demonize groups of people, and allow other people--in many cases their neighbors--to steal their stuff.

The Nazis had a program, for example, to fund greatly subsidized vacations for German citizens, funded in no small measure from appropriated assets.

Given all of this, why not point to the obvious structural similiarities, and continuities, and place them at varying points on a continuum, but proximate to one another as they are in practice?

Communism and Fascism on one end, radical libertariansism--which is little other than principled Anarchism--on the other?

I had more to say on that, but not the time to say it.

Duane,

If in fact your stand is primarily based on principle, and if that principle is that less regulation is always better, and that the more you are left alone, the better your government functions, then you ought, on that basis, to object at least as strenuously to Roe v. Wade as to the Patriot Act.

The Patriot Act, arguably, does not constitute an unreasonable search, and does utilize the warrant process and judicial and legislative review. In any event, we have no effective means of preventing attacks other than preemption. The Act serves a potentially useful purpose that cannot be acomplished any other way.

Be that as it may, Roe v. Wade is categorically indefensible Constitutionally, and this is true regardless of your view on the merits of the ruling.

It doesn't matter what you think about abortion (and I'm no dogmatist either way). The simple fact of the matter is that the 4th Amendment, which we examined carefully last Rest Day, is a signficant part of that ruling, and nowhere in the Bill of Rights, or the Constitution as a whole, can one find the actually referenced right to "privacy" that is used to justify a national ban on laws banning abortion. It isn't there.

Given this, it is patent judicial activism. It is the use of an unelected branch of government to arrogate to itself the right to pass binding law. And given that the Supreme Court is the law of the land, there is no means by which to legally rectify this travesty. This should concern you greatly. Much more, on the basis of principle, than the Patriot Act. It sets a very dangerous prescedent.

I would like to see you reconcile your libertarian impulses with a desire to regulate corporate interests as well. How can you do that without passing laws, and how can you reconcile that with a focus on increasing personal liberties?

Finally, I wanted to add that I had this sort of epiphany last night. Since the day of Lincoln--who did in fact infringe on many liberties, and who of course drew more on the anti-slavery basis of the Republican Party--we have been in effective breach of the intent of our Founders in creating the Constitutional Republic of the United States of America.

The intent was that each state be left to do what it wanted, and pass laws according to the interests of the people in it, subject to the broad rights defined in the Bill of Rights. All rights not specifically given to the Federal Government were to be defined by the States.

And the Civil War was fought on this basis, and the people who actually worked to defend a correct understanding of the Constitution were defeated. We have been on something of a wrong path since.

However, if at some point we can get judicial activisim under control--if we can get the Supreme Court to stay within the bounds defined for it by Madison v. Marbury, if not the bounds of the Constitution itself--then there's no reason that states like Minnesota couldn't look more like Sweden. They could pass sweeping social safety net types of laws--more than they have now--and give themselves a new sort of order.

Tennessee, where I would more likely live, can continue what would amount to a much more business-friendly climate, and let people make their own way.

And people can choose to live where they want.

A correllate to this, of course, is vastly reduced federal taxes on all levels. Bush is quite right to insist on taxation as a core violation of personal liberty, and quite right--ethically and economically--to insist that those paying the largest proportional amount of taxes receive the greatest relief. That this money is then invested and used to generate economic growth has been shown clearly in the last 6 years. The program worked, and can only now be attacked rhetorically, not factually.

Sorry for the off-topic long post. I need to knock it off, but I had some ideas I wanted to work out. I will add, it seems to me that philophical clarity of the type I am trying to create is necessary for the proper assessment of issues like China.

Comment #96 - Posted by: Barry Cooper at August 12, 2007 7:03 AM

Economically, with reference to China, I was reading an interview with Jack Welch--business superstar--and he was pointing out that disparity of output. With a billion people, their output is roughly 1/7th of ours. They are growing at 10% annually, we are growing at 3%. He made the point that that 10% is likely unsustainable, and it also seems clear to me that Chinese production has taken some serious hits in the last year. A lot of contracts have been cancelled.

The theoretical overlap was in the 2040's, but he didn't think we would ever see it.

Again, though, this is why national defense is essential, and why we can't afford any major screw-ups.

Comment #97 - Posted by: Barry Cooper at August 12, 2007 7:12 AM

60 minute athletic conditioning class at UCSF (i.e. Billy Blanks meets Cross Fit), + some upper body weights

Comment #98 - Posted by: ItIsKaren at August 12, 2007 9:17 AM

Airdj,

Despite my agreement with your analysis of Barry, I need to point out, like I already have in this thread, that this is a rest day thread.

On rest days, we exercise our minds instead of our bodies. Im not seeing any bleed over of the political discussion to work days, so why not chill out?

Comment #99 - Posted by: Duane at August 12, 2007 11:44 AM

Duane,

Good point.

Comment #100 - Posted by: airdj at August 12, 2007 11:48 AM

AirDJ,

I think I could likely get my work published, if I wanted to, in a number of places. I use this forum to work ideas out. I have found that by forcing myself to express myself in places where I know I will get some push-back, that I generally generate more and better ideas.

If most people are too lazy to read what I spend the time writing, then at some point or other they will be too lazy to govern themselves, and will need to invite in adult supervision. This is the direction we are going.

I will say, though, that that post alone generated another page of notes I'm not going to post here.

And yes, I read the news regularly. Would me making myself more ignorant on purpose stop Iraqis from torturing one another to death? From Iranian IED's killing Americans? Does anything good come from pretending this is not a violent world filled with horrors most of us can't imagine?

As I see it, it is the part of courage to face the world the way it is--not the way we wish it were--and work to change it for the better. It is precisely an inability to tell the truth to themselves that causes so many to underestimate the potential dangers we as a nation face.

And as I have long been arguing, America is the world's best hope. Look at how much inaction the Europeans were able to generate in the several Balkan crises, because they mistook talking for progress. Look at Iraq now. If that problem is going to get fixed this generation it is going to involve American soldiers. It won't involve any of our critics, who don't so much want to solve the problem as whine. Whining is easy and it feels good.

I choose to view civic and moral responsibility as a principle purpose for living, and while I could work these ideas out somewhere else--and occasionally do--I do so here, because by and large I like the people who come here, some of whom I would count as friends.

Comment #101 - Posted by: Barry Cooper at August 12, 2007 12:44 PM

#98, Airdj,

"You ever kissed a girl? You are overintellectualizing this subject to the point that your intended audience wants you to choke on chinese food."

You may not be the intended audience.

Some time after high school, making fun of the smart guys stops being an optimal strategy for attracting women. All things being equal, actually being a smart guy becomes the more successful approach. Of course, this option is not open to all men.

Comment #102 - Posted by: Hari at August 12, 2007 1:52 PM

This is a repost, with a couple words modified. If it makes it through, mods, please of course just delete the other one.

I've never had a problem getting women. In fact, my problem is I caught at least one too many. I've added 3 notches since ending that, putting me somewhere in the mid-30's. For serious players, maybe that's not so good, but I've seen enough female anatomy to decide it's what's between the ears that most matters.

If you want to know the truth, I think intercourse is overrated. It's the guys who aren't getting any, or haven't gotten much, that spend all their time thinking about it. I know what clubs to go to. I'm not bad looking, I'm not shy, I'm an excellent--even charming--talker when I want to be, I know how to dance. My closing ratio is extremely high.

But instead I choose to obsess over our collective future, over what we need to do to make it through this century as a free and prosperous people.

You see, I have children, and I love them. I choose to make time for very few superficialities in my life.

I will add, our societal attitude towards relationships between the genders is completely messed up. It's all hormones, and no love. All friction and no romance.

I'm a guy, and I like to get my rocks off as much as anyone else, but I've done it so many times that I know from experience that it's just not that satisfying with a woman you don't know or care about. You finish with your thing, then you just want to hightail it out of there, especially when she starts making eyes at you.

As a drug, "indecent material" (the other words are likely filtered) feeds this impulse. But like any other compulsive behavior, it's almost like a form of malnutrition. It's like trying to live on potato chips. The more you eat, the worse your vitamin deficiency. You try and try to satisfy our hunger, but it never gets better, that vague ache never disappears, and you hide that fact from yourself by never stopping, like a shark. Players are always on the hunt, and the second they catch someone, they are off again, starting again, having learned nothing, and having failed to satisfy even themselves.

Bottom line: yes, it's been a while. My choice of a physical ache over an emotional one, and it's made me enormously productive.

What have you accomplished lately?

Comment #103 - Posted by: barry cooper at August 12, 2007 2:23 PM

#60 Hari
Good point, doing pushups now for my insubordination. They are sneaky though.

Comment #104 - Posted by: Jason at August 12, 2007 7:44 PM

#60 Hari

Changed my mind...what 62 KG said. You do pushups

Comment #105 - Posted by: Jason at August 12, 2007 7:46 PM

Ran 5.3 miles in 38:54. 7:20 / mile

Comment #106 - Posted by: dan at August 13, 2007 5:04 AM

Wow! It seems like a lot of hate and jealousy flying around lately in the rest day room. I think the biggest reason why people attack the thinkers here, is that they are intimidated by intelligence and because they know on some level they can't keep up with a higher discussion.

Joey, you came close with what you said about being misunderstood, but maybe it's just that they don't like how uncomfortable they feel when you say things that need to be said. Barry, It's the same thing with you, people tend to get frustrated with you because you push and push. To me, it's always been noticable that you are working things through in your posts, against other people and with other people. If only I had more time some days...

At any rate, enjoyed the read as usual, even if I did it a bit after the fact. Hari, you had many good posts.

We were out at an event all day Saturday, so our rest day discussion was yesterday and it was about what would we do if we were the suppossed last person on earth.

Kate

Comment #107 - Posted by: jknl at August 13, 2007 7:49 AM

Age 51/BW 245#
used 105# up from 85# of last "GRACE" (9:40)

Comment #108 - Posted by: Stan K at August 13, 2007 10:04 AM

I should add, Bush's grandfather was a senator and his brother is a governor. There may be more. But the point remains - he grew up around politics and knows a fair bit more than you want to give him credit for.

Comment #109 - Posted by: Andrew H. Meador at August 13, 2007 11:42 AM

Geez..

Silly hippies-
http://www.planetjh.com/news/A_101763.aspx

Comment #110 - Posted by: cctjoey at August 13, 2007 11:55 AM

#109

I dont know about anything else, but in my lifetime I havent seen 'protests' change a darn thing.

Oh well, at least hippies are good for entertainment.

check out www.protestwarrior.com , its a blast.

Comment #111 - Posted by: Duane at August 13, 2007 12:18 PM

Being the abstinate busy bee that I am, I've been learning about the Democrat Woodrow Wilson, who arguably helped create the Second World War by tricking the Germans into surrendering based on their (misplaced) trust in him. There were many factors, but that was one of them.

To the point of civil liberties, though, I would commend to everyone this link describing how Wilson behaved in a time of war. It very simply shreds histrionic claims that Bush is somehow "unique" in his claims to power:

http://chicora.org/woodrow_wilson.htm

Comment #112 - Posted by: Barry Cooper at August 13, 2007 2:15 PM

Duane, That is a great link. I wish I would have been able to help write that book.

Comment #113 - Posted by: CCTJOEY at August 14, 2007 7:15 PM

To Barry - in response to #95:

You said,
"It doesn't matter what you think about abortion (and I'm no dogmatist either way)."

While you are clearly intelligent, it bugs me that you apparently don't have any strong convictions about defending a certain group of people who are incapable of defending themselves. It is inexcusable to fail to affirm and defend the personhood and rights of the unborn. It is as bad as those in our history who failed to affirm and defend the personhood and rights of blacks.

Comment #114 - Posted by: dan at August 15, 2007 10:35 AM
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